National Statistical Institute

Statistics on Tourism and Business surveys Department

Hristina Terziyska

State expert

2, P. Volov Str., 1038 Sofia, Bulgaria

[email protected]

+359 2 9857 628

The consumer survey contains standardized questions about the financial situation of households, general economic situation in the country, inflation, unemployment, saving, intentions of making major purchases on durable goods or purchasing/building a home or buying a car. The proposed options of answers give an opportunity to arrange them from optimistic, through neutral to pessimistic. The survey results are used to capture the direction of change of observed variables incl. "the consumer confidence level", which gives an opportunity to analyze the tendencies in the development of public opinions on significant economic phenomena in the country.

Respondents are categorized by 5 criteria: income, economic activity, education, age and gender.

The object of the survey are the persons aged 18 and over in Republic of Bulgsria. The sample method is random, clustered, and proportional to the population by regions, incl. urban/rural inhabitants.

According to the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, the consumer confidence indicator is an arithmetic mean of the balances of the assessments and expectations about the financial situation of households, expectations about general economic situation in the country and the intentions to make major purchases of durable goods.

The proposed answer options are presented in a five-point category scale. The obtained results are in the form of balances, which are calculated as the difference between the relative shares of positive and the relative shares of negative opinions with the following feature: strongly positive and strongly negative opinion is given coefficient 1, and for the more moderately positive and more moderately negative opinions - coefficient 0.5.

Units of observation are households and their members.

Reference population of the survey - the permanent population of the Republic of Bulgaria aged 18 years and more.

Total for the territory of Republic of Bulgaria.

Time series of data are published from 2001 (at Information System INFOSTAT of the National Statistical Institute).

Not applicable.

Balance and percentage.

Quarter.

• The Joint harmonized EU programme of business and consumer surveys;
• Manual to the Joint harmonized EU programme of business and consumer surveys;
• Law of Statistics;
• The National Statistical Program;

The indicators are provided to state institutions in accordance with the requirements of concluded agreements.

The confidentiality of the individual data of interviewed persons in the consumer survey is guaranteed by:

• Law on Statistics:  http://www.nsi.bg/bg/node/553;
• Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009 (OJ L 87, p. 164), stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society:

(http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:087:0164:0173:bg:PDF)

• Law for Protection of the Personal Data;

Individual data from the survey are not published in accordance with article 25 of the Law on Statistics. The publishing of individual data can be performed only in accordance with article 26 of the Law on Statistics and Rules for provision of anonymized individual data for scientific and research purposes (http://www.nsi.bg/bg/node/575).

The date of publication of statistical information is indicated in the Release Calendar presenting the results of the statistical surveys carried out by the National Statistical Institute. The data are announced in the first week after the reference period.

The calendar is available on the NSI website: http://www.nsi.bg/en/node/488

Consumer surveys data are published on the NSI website, section "Business Statistics" - "Business Surveys" in accordance with the Law on Statistics (Chapter 5) and the European Statistics Code of Practice respecting the professional independence and aimed at objectivity, transparency and equal treatment of all consumers.

The access to the results of the statistical surveys of all users and equality of their rights are regulated in the Rules for dissemination of statistical products and services of the National Statistical Institute.

Quarterly.

NSI publishes regular press releases "Consumer survey" in the first week after the reference period.

Analytical publication "Bulgaria 2011 - statistical panorama".

Quarterly Consumer survey results are available in the informational system for online statistical queries INFOSTAT: Topic "Business Statistics", Subtopics "Business Surveys": https://infostat.nsi.bg/infostat/pages/module.jsf?x_2=33.

Not applicable.

Information services on request, according to the Rules for dissemination of statistical products and services by the NSI http://www.nsi.bg/bg/node/564/.

Manual to the Joint harmonized EU programme of business and consumer surveys.

Not applicable.

The applied statistical practice of providing data is according to the harmonized European Union programme for business and consumer surveys.

It is performed according to the standard criteria for quality assessment - applicability, accuracy and reliability, timeliness, comparability and coherence.

Main users of the data are national and international organizations and institutions.

The users' satisfaction survey is not carried out.

Consumer survey in the Republic of Bulgaria covers all mandatory variables, according to the general harmonized program of the European Union.

The sample used for the survey is two-stage cluster sample The sample size is 1232 persons aged 18 years and over for each quarter. Due to the sampling approach used in the survey, results are subject of errors which attributable to sample, as well as other errors relating to the inability to be interviewed some of the units in the sample, error in registration of responses, processing, and others.

The survey is a sample and calculates the coefficient of variation, standard error or confidence interval.

Like any statistical survey and consumer survey may contain non-sampling errors that arise at different stages of the study.

Such errors are basically:

• coverage errors;
• measurement errors that occur at the time of data collection;
• processing errors;
• non-response errors.

In order to reduce non-sampling errors:

• update of the household lists for each of the first stage selection census enumeration areas;
• development of a clear research methodology, ongoing updating of data coding systems;
• using interviewers with experience in collecting, controlling, encoding and inputting data;
• conducting regular training seminars for the interviewers;
• assistance to the interviewers of the survey team at NSI;
• data control at the collection, input, and processing stage.

The NSI presents information about survey in the first week after the reference period.

The data are disseminated according to the planned schedule.

The data are prepared at national level.

The data in the time series are comparable over time.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

1. Coordination between all departments and directorates in NSI about the participation of the respondents in other household surveys.

2. The questionnaire is structured so that to make it as easy as possible the respondents to complete it.

3. The average duration of the interview is about 10 minutes per respondent.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Main data source are questionnaires.

Quarterly.

The data are collected using a questionnaire by conducting a personal interview with the persons included in the sample.

Data validation is performed at two levels:

• Stage one: validation of the data in the process of entering the data from the paper forms. The information from the reports is entered through a specially developed software product, in which controls are set, which show possible logical inconsistencies and incorrect values of the variables.
• Stage two: After the data are entered in the web-based application, the NSI Central Office undergoes additional validation procedures.

The data processing is performed by developed application software.

Not applicable.