Seasonally adjusted

National Statistical Institute

Short-term Business Statistics and Transport Statistics Department

Stela Staykova-Valkova

State expert

2, P. Volov Str.; 1038 Sofia, Bulgaria

[email protected]

+359 2 9857 137

The monthly production indices measure changes in production values of services enterprises. The information may be used to assess the current situation and the trends in the development of the business services as well as for short-term forecasts.

The index data are presented in the following forms:

• Unadjusted;
• Working-day adjusted;
• Seasonally-adjusted.

Classification of Economic Activities  NACE Rev. 2.

Activities covered : Sections H, I, J, L, parts of M (М69_702, М71, М73 и М74) and N of NACE.BG-2008. Turnover indices are calculated by economic activities at divisions and groups (2nd and 3-th digit levels of NACE.BG-2008) and total H, I, J, L, M_STS and N.

The monthly production indices measure changes in production values of services enterprises. The information may be used to assess the current situation and the trends in the development of the business services as well as for short-term forecasts. Production indices in services are calculated by deflating the turnover indices for each activity with the corresponding producer price indices.

The surveyed unit is enterprise (Legal unit considered as enterprise).

The total population includes about 173 000 enterprises. The sampling population includes about 52 000 enterprises of which sample of approximately 11 000 units are surveyed. The sample making about 75% of the annual turnover of the enterprises in the sections H, J, L, M_STS, N and devision I56. Devision I55 use VAT declarations as administrative source.

All regions of Bulgaria are covered.

The indices are calculated from the first month of 2015 to the last month of the reference year.

Year 2015=100

Indices (%).

Month

National Legal basis: The Law on Statistics (Article 20) states that all persons that manage or represent legal persons, are obliged to provide the National Statistical Institute and the Bodies of Statistics with reliable data when filling-in forms and questionnaires on surveys included in the National Statistical Programme, for which mandatory participation is provided.

EU Legaslation:

· Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics; Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 and Regulation (EC) No 1893/2006 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 December 2006 establishing the statistical classification of economic activities NACE Revision 2.

Selected data in special formats are transmitted monthly to the Eurostat.

• The Law on Statistics includes provisions relating to data confidentiality and protection of secrecy, which are in compliance with the EU legislation and standard European practice. In the Law is stated that individual data received and collected at the time of statistical surveys shall be statistical confidentiality and shall be used only for statistical purposes. Individual data, obtained for the purposes of the statistical surveys, shall not be used as evidence to the bodies of the executive powers and the judicial authorities. Requirements, obligations and measures for data protection, as well as fines that can be imposed, are treated in separate chapters, namely Chapter 6 on "Protection of secrecy" and Chapter 9 on "Administrative penal provisions".

  · Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009 (OJ L 87, p. 164), stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society.

Article 25 of the Law on Statistics specifies the criteria, according to which certain data cannot be made public or released - individual data, data which could be indirectly identified, as well as aggregations of less than three statistical units and/or when the relative share of one parameter is more than 85% of the total volume of this parameter for all population units.

Data, which according to the Law on statistics are confidential, are not published.

The date for publication of statistical information is listed in the Release calendar by dates and by themes. Production indices are published 60 days after the end of the month.

The calendar is available on the NSI website. 

The data are published on the NSI website, section Business Statistics in accordance with the Law on Statistics and the European Statistics Code of Practice respecting the professional independence and aimed at objectivity, transparency and equal treatment of all consumers.The data are available in the on-line database INFOSTAT.

Month

NSI published regular monthly press release on turnover indices in services.

Production Indices in Services | National statistical institute (nsi.bg)

None

A data for the period 2022 - 2024 could be found on the NSI website in section Business statistics.

Production Indices in Services | National statistical institute (nsi.bg)

The time series has been recalculated according to the new base year and they can be downloaded from INFOSTAT information system.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

The legal framework which regulates the production of data from Short-term business statistics states that statistical data compiled within the EU system must be of satisfactory quality and produced data are comparable between Member States. Verification of data is done through the process of conducting a statistical survey - from respondents, from experts in the regional statistical offices and from national experts in NSI. Identified inaccuracies and errors are removed timely and comparable data of good quality are provided. The quality of statistical information and its production process is ensured by the provisions of the European Statistics Code of Practice. The documentation on quality management is available on the Internet.

In accordance with European and international standards, instructions are followed in relation to concepts, definitions and methodology.

Main users of the information are:

• Eurostat;
• Representatives of central and local government;
• Media and organizations, business.
• Internal users: Directorate „Macroeconomic statistics“.

Monthly production indices measure changes in the turnover of enterprises in services; this information is suitable for monitoring of current economic developments and short-term forecasts.

One of the main requirements of users is the availability of long time series. This applies to all indicators of short-term business statistics. Production indices in services are calculated from the first month of 2015.

Not measured.

Services production indices are calculated and published at all levels of detail that are required by the Regulations concerning STS.

Index of Production in Services is an indicator computed using Index of turnover in services and Deflators (relevant price indexes). Therefore the accuracy of ISP is determined by the punctuality of these two indicators (Turnover index in services and Producer prices in services), the description of which can be found in the metadata devoted to them.

Applied sampling method is "stratified random sample" in which first the enterprises stratify by level of activity (2 - or 3-digit codes of NACE.BG-2008) and then at each level in terms of turnover. Also stratified by activity groups are defined by four subsets. From each subset is determined enterprises will fall into the sample through unintentional random props that provides equal opportunities for all businesses to fall or not to fall into the sample for survey. The first subset includes enterprises with the highest turnover of any activity group, which are observed exhaustive. For the second and third subsets is used random sampling. The fourth includes enterprises with negligible or very low turnover, which do not fall in the sample.

Extrapolation of the results to the population is made by using extrapolation coefficients which are based on the turnover of the selected units and total turnover in the particular strata.

The selection of statistical units falling in the sample and sampling errors are computed with SPSS.

Coefficient of variation is used as an indicator on precision. It is computed as a percentage.

Coefficient of variation for September of 2023

Mistakes made in the processing of the data are detected and removed by set arithmetic and logical controls by ISBC.

Non-responder enterprises are performed imputation of data depending on the activity and stratum, using extrapolation coefficients.

The overall average response rate is around 90% in terms of the number of enterprises and about 95% when weighted with turnover. It varies significantly, depending on the principle activity and size of the enterprises.

Production indices in services are released 60 days after the end of the reference month.

Regulation concerning STS requires turnover indices in services to be provided to Eurostat 2 months after the end of the reference month.

Production indices are representative for the whole country; they are not representative by regions of the country. NSI applies methodology, which is in line with international standards. In this sense, the comparability of the indicators across countries can be considered as very good.

The month indices are presented as time series from first month of 2015 according to NACE.BG-2008 at base year 2015 which are published in the site of NSI and on-line system INFOSTAT.

Production indexes are compared with turnover indexes calculated on the base of annual Structural business statistics (SBS) survey. Also SBS is the source of weights for calculation the STS indicators. Data received from SBS and those receives from STS are coherent.

Not applicable.

Since the middle of 2021 NSI have resumed an online information system for data collection, data editing and data processing of STS information. Data for devision I55 are collected from VAT declarations. These changes provides more efficient way of collecting data from enterprises. This new system save recourses, reduce the burden of the reporting units and the quality of short term indicators is improved.

There are always a difference between STS data of the enterprises and their annual accounts. At the beginning of each year the indexes for the previous year are reconciled on the basis of the comprehensive annual data from SBS.

The changes are made at the time when the revision is introduced and they are marked in footnotes in the relevant published tables.

Mean Absolute Revision(MAR) and Mean Revision(MR) are used as revision indicators. They are calculated on year-on-year growth rates for calendar adjusted data.

MAR and MR for calendar adjusted data for 2021-2023:

Information for the indices calculation is on the base of monthly survey 'Sales in industry, construction, trade and services' and VAT declarations.

Month

Sampling monthly survey for turnover indices and VAT declarations.

Interpolation, forecasting and direct use as deflators of different types of indexes derived from other statistical surveys.

At the lower level of aggregation (2-nd digit level of NACE.BG-2008) indices calculation is made on the bases of direct comparison of the data from the current quarter and data on the average month turnover value in the base year.

At higher level of aggregation indexes are calculated as weighted average - indices at lower levels are weighted with turnover structure.

Production indexes are published as:

• Unadjusted time series;
• Working day adjusted time series;
• Seasonally adjusted time series.

The software used for seasonal and working day adjustment is JDEMETRA+ (TRAMO-SEATS).

The purpose of working day adjustment is to check and eliminate the significance of the calendar effects as the results from the difference in the number of working days and holidays in the national calendar.

The purpose of seasonal adjustment is to remove ordinary seasonal variation. The series of data are checked for outliers of different types and typical calendar effects on the dynamics of a given indicator. Usually seasonal fluctuations are those changes that are repeated seasonally each year.

Time series the indices of building construction and civil engineering are seasonal and working day adjusted, and time series of the indices of construction - total obtained by applying the indirect method.

Revisions to seasonally adjusted data are published in accordance with accepted revision policy and release calendar that is aligned with the revision policy and the revision calendar for the unadjusted data.