GDP by Final Expenditure – Total of economy (Quarterly data)

National Statistical Institute

Non-Financial National and Regional Accounts

Boryana Manolova

Milena Panova

Head of department

Chief expert

2 P. Volov Str., Sofia 1038

[email protected]

[email protected]

+359 2 9857 623

+359 2 9857 737

National accounts for Bulgaria compiled according to the main methodological recommendations of the documents "System of National Accounts, 2008" (SNA 2008), an issue of EUROSTAT, IMF, OECD, UN and the World Bank, and "European System of Accounts, 2010" (ESA2010), an issue of EUROSTAT.

Main macroeconomic indicators of the system of national accounts are the gross domestic product (GDP).

GDP by final expenditure is calculated as a sum of individual consumption(including final consumption expenditure of households, final consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving households, final government expenditure on individual consumption), collective consumption (final cost to the government for collective consumption, which satisfy the needs of society as a whole), gross fixed capital formation(investments made in fixed assets), changes in inventories, net exports of goods and services(the difference between exports and imports of goods and services).

Flows of products and services in the economic system of Bulgaria are structured based on national classifications consistent with the classification standards of the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010):

· Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP);

· Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG);

· Nomenclature of Industrial Production (PRODCOM.BG);

· Combined Nomenclature.

Total of economy

GDP by the method of the costs of final use includes the following components:

Individual consumption of households, measured by :

Final consumption expenditure of households, covering the following items:

• purchases of goods retailed incl. purchases between population purchases from catering and chairs, as well as pay for the repair of the goods;
• purchase of services - electricity, water and heat ;
• transport and communication services, residential rents, educational services paid health services, services related to leisure, culture and sport;
• insurance and other services;
• goods produced by households for their own consumption, represented by unincorporated activities and natural products consumed by the population;
• income in kind;
• imputation of housing occupied by owners.

Individual consumption of households is calculated in accordance with the so-called national plan, i.e. includes consumption of residents abroad and excludes the use of non-residents. Since 1997, household consumption expenditures are estimated classification SOISOR - An international classification of consumer spending used in the SNA and ESA 2008-2010. Household consumption expenditures are presented in 12 major sections.

Final consumption expenditure of government for Individual household for services provided include free services in health, social security, education, sport, culture and art. They are measured by the gross output of these activities, less the fees paid (if any) included in intermediate consumption of other sectors or in final consumption expenditure of households.

Final consumption expenditure of NPISHs is measured by the production of this institutional sector. This is the cost of union, religious, charitable and other non-profit organizations to provide goods and services to households free or at not economically significant prices.

Data on final consumption expenditure of households follow internationally accepted national concept in terms of consumption expenditure of foreign tourists in Bulgaria and the Bulgarians abroad. According to it, the cash expenditure of foreign tourists in the country are recognized in the revenue side of the balance as exports of goods and services , and monetary costs of Bulgarian citizens abroad are recognized in the expenditure side of the balance as imports of goods and services. The application of this methodological principle does not change the level of GDP, as it affects both besides the assessment of final consumption, and trade the balance of goods and services.

Collective consumption is measured by final government expenditure on collective services provided to the public as a whole. Includes Maintenance of the settlements made by the municipalities, basic research, public administration, defense and security.

They are measured by the volume of their gross output less the value from the fees paid for services element of final consumption expenditure of households.

Gross fixed capital formation includes the cost of acquiring these types of long-term financial assets, including the increase in construction in progress:

• fixed assets, including perennials, productive livestock, buildings, machinery and equipment, vehicles, furniture and fixtures;
• Intangible assets such as software, prospecting and exploratory work, design and more.

These are investments made for the purchase of assets reused in the manufacturing process for an extended period of time (over a year).

According to the methodology acquired existing assets remain outside the scope of the indicator, as the value of the cost of distribution and installation of existing assets affects the amount of gross fixed capital formation.

Elements of gross fixed capital formation are valued at purchasers' prices when they are bought, and the basic price if they are produced for own consumption.

Changes in inventories include:

• Change in inventories of raw materials, work in progress, finished goods and goods for resale businesses, young animals and animals for fattening. The assessment relates to their physical growth (reduction), i.e. the size of the holding gains / losses accumulated as a result of price changes rather than the actual production process;
• Changes in inventories of households resulting from unincorporated activities.

Annual estimates of changes in inventories and holding gains and losses are made as the sum of the quarterly estimates.

For inventories of finished goods and work in progress, holding gains and losses are eliminated from estimates of production in the production account. Intermediate consumption is adjusted by the value of holding gains for raw materials. Changes in inventories as part of GDP by expenditure method for final use is calculated excluding holding gains and losses for the four groups of stocks.

Estimates of changes in inventories without holding gains / losses are made in the following manner:

The holdings of stocks by type and activity at the beginning and end of a given quarter are deflated with specific price indices, which are converted into average prices of the previous year. The difference between the deflated values (end minus beginning of the period) is an assessment of physical change in inventories at constant prices without holding gains / losses. Assessment of changes in stocks at the prices of the quarter is obtained through inflated the valuation at constant prices, a price index for the quarter.

The foreign trade balance (exports minus imports of goods and services) as a component of GDP by final use is the difference between the value of exported and imported goods and services. Exports and imports of goods are recorded at prices FOB.

Institutional unit under ESA2010 - enterprise, household, public institution.

Economic territory of the country

Bulgaria

from 1995 (Infostat)

2015

Information sources for development are:

• Quarterly report;
• Statistical Annexes;
• Administrative data and balance sheet developments:
  - Consolidated reports on implementation of the state budget;
  - Customs information;
  - Tax Information;
  - Balance of Payments.

Quarterly

Quarterly data

Implementation of validated procedures for assessing data quality.

Implementation of validated procedures for assessing the quality of data and the development of estimation of the completeness of the data.

Applies seasonal adjustment of the data using software JDemetra+.

· European Statistics Code of Practice;

· Common framework for quality management in the National Statistical System.

Questionnaire on the implementation of the principles of the European Statistics Code of Practice.

In practice, the system of national accounts, there are two main types of revisions. The first type of audits is ongoing, regular characterized by the presence of new or updated statistical information based on statistical surveys or administrative sources. The second type of revisions is related to a change in the methodology and calculation procedures for specific statistical indicators.

National accounts data are subject to continuous routine revisions as new input data becomes available. This will typically also entail revisions of the national accounts aggregates, which are derived from these data. In BG national accounts two types of revisions are: regular –  quarterly, preliminary, final data; and main - based on implementation of new methodology or GNI reservations.

Flash estimates of GDP - T +42-43 days after the reporting period

Current quarterly estimates of GDP - T +65 days after the reporting period

The data transmitted to Eurostat are in compliance with National Accounts Data Distribution Program Annex B of the ESA 2010 and respective derogations for the country.

The comparability is ensured  through the implementation of common definitions of ESA 2010.

By using a common framework of the European System of Accounts  ESA 2010, the data can be comparable over time.

In certain cases, data from other domains of economic statistics, i.e. balance of payments statistics, business statistics, household budget statistics or external trade statistics can be used for cross-checking purposes. These economic statistics are also available from the appropriate domains on the NSI website.

Press Release

Data are available to all users of the NSI website under the heading Macroeconomic statistics - Gross Domestic Product - Quarterly data - GDP by Final Expenditure - Total of economy: https://www.nsi.bg/en/node/5509

Not applicable.

European System of Accounts (2010) (Eurostat).

· Law on Statistics;

· Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009 (OJ L 87, p. 164), stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society.