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Updated population projection up to 2090

Published at: 14.11.2023 - 11:00

Demographic projections (population perspective projections) are calculations done under settled in advance conditions for the future development of fertility, mortality and migration. They give an idea of population development during the projected period. The projections concern the development of the population up to 2090, taking into account the number of the population, the number of live births and deaths, and the number of immigrants and emigrants. The population is distributed by sex and age for each year of the period. Three different scenarios for the population projections are used, depending on the expected social-economic development of the country.

The first variant is defined as realistic and prepared according to the EU’s regulations on the demographic and socio-economic development of Member States. Under this variant, by 2075, the country's population will decrease to 4 972 thousand, or below 5 million. The population aged 65 and over will be 25.5%, and the age dependency ratio - 69.1, or for every 100 persons of the active age population, there will be 69 persons of dependent age - under 15 and over 64 years.

The other two scenarios are developed under the hypotheses that demographic development will take place during favourable and, respectively, unfavourable socio-economic processes in the country.

Data on the population projection can be found under the heading 'Population and demographic projections'.