The section Theory and Methodology of statistical studies incudes the article:
• Additive factor analysis of the production volumes of homogeneous and heterogeneous sets of commodities with discrete odd function of the mathematical signum - author Prof. Emil Hrostov
Based on clear and precise distinction between homogeneous and heterogeneous statistical set of goods are compiled two different methodologies for additive factor analysis of the change in output volume in money terms for two compared years. The first methodology is about the difference in the volume of production of a uniform set of differences of two factor variables - the average price of all goods and their total natural amount for the entire aggregate. The second methodology is about the difference in the volume of production of the heterogeneous set of differences in prices of individual goods and their natural amounts. The overall similarity between the two methods is that the true and precise effects of the factor variables are measured with discrete odd function of the mathematical signum. It defines the algebraic signs of the net effects and the absence or presence of a joint effect with the appropriate algebraic sign.
The next article will present two similar methodologies for the more complex index factor analysis of production output which are output from the additive analysis methodologies.
The section Statistical research and analysis included the articles:
• Need for improvement and effective use of innovative activity in the activities of statisticians - author Prof. Ivanka Saikova, University of National and World Economy - Sofia
This article discusses how to increase the innovative capacity of statisticians understood as improved skills to find ideas, justification and implementation of useful innovations in their activities. The main factors that favor the birth of beneficial innovations as well as the barriers faced by innovators are being discussed. Formulated are ideas and specific proposals aimed at solving this current task.
• Perspectives for growth of the population in Bulgaria - author Prof. Dimitar Arkadiev, Veliko Tarnovo University ‘St. Cyril and Methodius’
Bulgaria is currently in a demographic crisis that might lead to a demographic catastrophe. The study discusses the conditions that have led to this state, and some opportunities and ways to stop the negative processes.
The long term change in the number of population in the country from 1880 to 2011 is analysed. Established are the components of total population growth in certain periods. Such are the natural growth (the difference between births and deaths) and mechanical growth (from territorial changes and external migrations). The total growth was 4.5 million people. The natural increase was 5.8 million. (Born are over 17.6 million, the dead were 11.8 million.). Mechanical growth is -1.3 million. (From territorial changes it was 0.3 million, and the migration rate was -1.6 million). After 1992, all components are negative.
Specified are the conditions for overcoming the demographic crisis and sources to ensure population growth: 1) immigration policy (attraction to persons of Bulgarian ethnic group from neighbouring or more distant countries, return of persons with Bulgarian origin, who have emigrated to other countries and their descendants, attracting from other countries persons with a close language and culture to Bulgarians and persons professing the country's main Christian religion); 2) policy to reduce mortality (reduce to the lowest possible limit of deaths from external causes, restriction of drug abuse and its consequences, smoking, excessive alcohol use, prophylactics for early detection of various diseases leading to premature death, reducing child mortality, etc.); 3) birth encouraging policy (creation of all conditions for normal child-rearing primarily in a family environment, prevention of births in young age, criminalizing the abandonment of children by their mothers, prevention and treatment of infertility and many others); 4) other policies in the social field (solving of some problems with part of the Roma population, "basic income", etc.).
Discussed and offered are projections for population growth until 2070. They also apply to ethnic composition. Population is expected to fall to 5 - 5.5 million people. From these persons the Bulgarian ethnic group consists of about 70%, Turkish - 10%, and Roma - 20%.
Discussed are some unfavourable scenarios for the development of Bulgaria. They would not become a fact under two main conditions - economic growth and strict observance of the rule of law in the state.
• Concept for development of the regional statistical offices in the new organizational structure of the National Statistical Institute - author Svetla Ivanova, RSO - Yugozapaden, National Statistical Institute
This concept aims to prove that the successful development of regional statistical offices (RSOs) as modern regional structures of the NSI is possible to achieve through adapted implementation of European requirements for the modernization of statistical organizations, the modern requirements for management in the public sector, quality management systems in it and the development of human resources towards increasing the motivation and professional capacity.
The presented analysis of the state and specifics of the functioning of the currently existing RSOs and diagnostics of the operating environment in method 7-S of McKinsey concluded that the actions of the leaders of the RSOs should be aimed at improving the quality of statistical information related to organizational changes by terms of motivated staff. In this connection are defined the priority goals for the development of RSOs in areas of quality, institutional development, personnel, partnerships and cost efficiency.
In order to implement the priority goals are discussed the possibilities of applying GAMSO and GSBPM, implementing DQAF and CAF quality self-assessment of a system of indicators to measuring the performance and increase of motivation and competence of employees through modern management approaches.
In the section Information, reviews, consultations are presented the following:
• Information about the ESSnet ‘BIG DATA’ Project author Galya Stateva, National Statistical Institute.
This information is intended to acquaint the reader with the basic and specific objectives of ESSnet ‘Big Data’ Project, as well as the content of the work packages in it. The main objective of the project is to prepare the European Statistical System for integration of sources of ‘Big Data’ in the process of producing official statistics. The National Statistical Institute is an active partner in WP2 work packages ‘Extracting information from the Internet for enterprise characteristics (web scraping)’, WP8 ‘Methodology for collecting, processing and analysis of Big Data’ and WP9 ‘Dissemination and promotion of project results’.
In February 2017 in Sofia, within the project framework, will be organized a final seminar, where the NSI will host and participate actively in its organization and conduct.
• Access to data for trips of Bulgarian citizens abroad and visits of foreigners to Bulgaria through SDMX - RI - author Kostadin Georgiev, National Statistical Institute.
In December 2014, the National Statistical Institute successfully completed the work on the ‘Horizontal and vertical integration: Implementation of technical and statistical standards in the European Statistical System’ Project. As a result of the project was created a Network Service for provision of statistical data. The Network Service uses software - SDMX-RI, provided by Eurostat. This information describes the steps to retrieve data through the Network Service and could serve as useful guidance for IT professionals who wish to develop tools for automatic extraction of information from the website of the NSI.
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