The section 135 years Bulgarian statistics contains the article:
• 90 years since the first survey on household budgets in Bulgaria - author Bogdan Bogdanov Ph.D., National Statistical Institute - Sofia
The analytical report notes the 135th anniversary of the creation of the state statistics in Bulgaria and the 90th anniversary of the first household budgets survey in the country. That commemorates the works of statisticians, who held for the first time a unique sample survey on the budgets of 1385 households in March 1925. The highest proportion in the household’s survey has the serving official’s households - 1 243 households, followed by those of workers - 82 households and artisans - 60 households. The results of the survey were published in two books in 1928 by the General Directorate of Statistics. It is interesting to note that the publications reflected the individual budgets of the observed officials and employees, with numbers from 1 to 1243.
This analytical report is a brief overview of the development of household budgets over the years as one of the important researches carried out regularly by the National Statistical Institute from 1953 till nowadays.
The section Statistical research and analysis contains the articles:
• ‘Agrarian statistics in Bulgaria’ - author Professor Polya Angelova, Economic Academy ‘D. Tzenov’ - Svishtov
Agrarian Statistics is one of the first separately conducted types of statistics in Bulgaria. Its development has passed through different historical and socio-economic stages, each of which has left its mark on its image. The article presents the main aspects of the organization and methodology of agricultural statistics from its beginning until our days, and based on the rich bibliography in the field are displayed regularities in its state and development. A thorough review and periodization of statistical surveys in agriculture have been made with an emphasis on their methodological aspects and the basic elements of their organization – range, object, periodicity, form of conduct and information sources. The retrospective analysis is the basis for comparison and evaluation of contemporary agricultural statistics whose activity over the past decade is a qualitatively new stage in its development, in line with European standards.
• A practical approach for stratification of population - author Stefan Tsonev, National Statistical Institute - Sofia
This article describes means for optimal stratification of population by a coefficient of variation for the purpose of broadcast of excerpts in simultaneously set volume and a maximum error.
This approach uses multiple iterations and is applicable in the presence of computing equipment.
Proposed is a formula for approximate estimation of the desired coefficient of variation.
The results of a sample survey of pesticide use in agriculture are provided as an example.
• Comparing the physical volume of the gross domestic product and price levels between countries in Europe - author Jeyna Barbolova, National Statistical Institute - Sofia
Standardized national accounts provide a coherent macroeconomic framework of the entire economy of a country, taking into account GDP growth in different periods - i.e. time comparisons.
Meanwhile for official exchange rates are not suitable for international comparisons of key value indicators because they are determined by supply and demand in the currency markets and apart from price difference other elements are reflected in them (international currency transactions, difference in interest rates, etc.).
In order to obtain pure indices of the physical volume it is necessary to use specific exchange rates, which converting the national currency into a single currency show how many goods and services are purchased in local currency within the country. The calculation of purchasing power parities (PPP) is a step towards comparing economic welfare between countries – i.e. spatial comparisons.
In brief are discussed history, legal basis, methodology and work development and disclosure of the results of the European Comparison Programme (PES) - a natural extension of national accounts in which the analysis of GDP and the main value indicators takes place in spatial rather than dynamic cross-section. Its main objective is measuring the differences in both price levels of goods and services as well as in economic development between countries in Europe.
A brief analysis of the express results is made for comparing physical volumes and relative price levels in 37 European countries - partners in PES in 2014.
• Benefits and challenges of the restructuring process in the national statistical institute - authors Iva Todorova, KPMG Bulgaria’ LTD, and Vihar Georgiev, KPMG Bulgaria’ LTD
The article deals with the challenges that affect the organizational development of the NSI for the period until 2020, as well as the main elements and benefits of the model for organizational optimization, aiming to overcome the identified challenges. Organizational development challenges before the NSI consist of increase in the statistical information needs of stakeholders, diversification of the available data sources and reduction of the burden on respondents. They are globally determined by the emerging mega-trends as the increasing role of citizens in the management, technological advances and new opportunities for information exchange, higher expectations for institutions and limited budgetary resources. In the model for organizational optimization are planned measures grouped into three chronological phases and five thematic fields, including organizational structure and functions, strategic management, basic business processes, human resources and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). The starting point for further modernization of the NSI is the awareness of the need for optimization of activities in view of the challenges and opportunities for development, and the final point - effective and efficient National Statistical Institute, functioning in harmony with the needs of the stakeholders on the basis of the integrated model the statistical business process.
The section ‘Historical development of statistical theory and practice’ contains the article:
• ‘Population growth in medieval Bulgaria’ - author Professor Dimitar Arkadiev, Veliko Turnovo ‘St. Cyril and Methodius’ University
The article discusses the problem of population numbers and its growth in medieval Bulgaria (VII - XIV century). It is stated that the source base is limited. Discussed are the available estimates of the population numbers provided by various authors. The author of the article offers his assessment of the population numbers in the modern territorial borders of Bulgaria. It is based on the number of settlements, housing and the people living in them at the beginning of VII century according to the archaeological studies. Another strong point is the population of Vidin kingdom in the middle of the fourteenth century (600 thousand people). The results are compared with the estimates obtained by other methods described in the literature. The population numbers at the beginning of VII century (600) is estimated at 800 thousand people and by the middle of the fourteenth century (1350) - to 2230 thousand people. Between them the evaluations are every 50 years. They are determined by modelling the growth with the number of years in wars, natural disasters, epidemics and other. Population has increased about three times between the initial and final assessment.
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