SUMMARY
In accordance with Article 5, paragraph 2 of Regulation (EC) № 763/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 9 July 2008 on population and housing censuses, Member States shall provide the Commission (Eurostat) with final audited and aggregated data and metadata as required by the Regulation, within 27 months of the end of the reference year. The reference year is 2011, and the deadline for delivery is March 31, 2014. The National Statistical Institute produced a comprehensive overview of the conducted census and its results. Thereunder the following facts contained in this summary were established:
• Change of the critical time and the period for conducting the census from March 10, 2011 to February 1, 2011. The amendments were adopted by the 40th National Assembly and were promulgated on 21.12.2010, i.e. only 40 days before the beginning of the census on 1.02.2011. The reasons given for changes in the law, according to the records of the National Assembly were: "In view of the tasks for the development of strategic documents development of the country - the National development Programme Bulgaria in 2020 in the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy and the new 5-year planning period for absorption of EU funds - 2013-2017 it is necessary to provide a timely availability of complete, accurate and adequate statistical information about the state of the population, economy and society. In this sense is the need for preparation and conduction of the 2011 Population Census in the shortest possible time". Reasons provided are irrelevant. There is no urgent need for the development of the motives in the strategic documents spanning 2017-2020. The commonly included in these indicators refer to the end of the calendar year. Reasons given are inconsistent, and changes in the duration of implementation and the deadline for submission of final results (5 months) have affected the quality of the results.
• Improper use of identity card numbers of the citizens who participated in the e-census. Improperly are used the identity card numbers of the citizens who participated in the e-census, rather than an electronic signature as it was in other countries, that used the internet. In Article 6 of the Law on Population and Housing Census the ID card numbers do not exist in the indications listed.
• Presence of questions in the census questionnaire which are not included in the law and vice versa - issues covered by the law, but missing in the census questionnaire. These are actual violations of the law.
• Confused formulations for residential buildings counting. Persons who counted themselves on the internet had to be visited by the enumerators who should fill out a paper questionnaire for the residential building after 9.02.2011.
• Lack of control counts and their replacement with control studies with administrative sources. The use of administrative sources does not provide an answer to the issue of the completeness of the scope of the population enumerated both on the Internet and in paper questionnaires. Even more acute is the issue with the accuracy of the registration according to indications that are missing in the administrative registers.
• Violation of the principle for "personal receipt of data from the persons enumerated". Completing the electronic card by one person for other persons, members of the household in their absence is a serious violation of the principles of the census, which affects the quality of the data.
• Unlawful dismissal of experts with many years of experience in the field of population census immediately after the end of the pilot census. By decision of the Supreme Administrative Court the persons dismissed have returned to work after two years.
• The pilot census in Bulgaria was held on September 1, 2010. This means that the time between the pilot census and the comprehensive census was only four months. The emphasis in the pilot census was placed mainly on testing of the online census. From the results it was found out that during the pilot census are successfully completed 8176 questionnaires, and 7406 - failed. No analysis of the results of the classical enumeration was made. The data published on the website of the NSI are from a list-model "Population and Housing Census - 2 List of buildings, dwellings, households and census areas" and refer only to the grounds of sex and age in three age groups.
• The online census was undertaken without thorough preparation and was premature. Developed and initially introduced logical controls and connections between various issues in the electronic form are removed during the actual population census. The experiences of countries that used the Internet in their population censuses in 2001 was not studied.
• Regional division of urban settlements into control areas and enumeration districts. The regional division is done within unprecedented and unjustified tight deadlines. Comprehensive update of the existing as of 2001 enumeration districts was not carried out. Part of the update was an obligation of the enumerators at the time of the very census which is unacceptable. It had to be completed before the start of the population census and the number of population of List PNZH-2 is a base on the basis of which are defined enumeration areas and control areas. In essence, regional division is essentially a micro-census by nature and contains the projected population.
• A large number of dropouts of trained enumerators during the very period of the census. Training of the enumerators is performed formally within a few hours instead of during 2-3 days. Low wages are the main reason for the dropouts. Another reason for discouragement to the enumerators is the lack of information about the number of persons in their enumeration areas to be counted on the Internet, which reduces the expected amount of payment. Replacement with new untrained enumerators inevitably affects the quality of the data received.
• Contradictory media-awareness campaign. It was associated mainly with the participation of the population in the online census. ("If you do not want to be visited by enumerators, complete the electronic questionnaire"). Emphasis was placed on the voluntary nature of the issues related to ethnicity, religion and mother tongue, rather than the uniqueness of the population census as a source of information on these indications.
• Comprehensive instrumentation of the census. The Central Population Census Commission discussed on 25 and 26 November 2010 and accepted instrumentation and final content of the census questionnaire, and instructions for enumerators, and supervisors. And the adoption of amendments to the Law is of December 2010? Which critical moment from the census was adopted by the CPC?
• Arranging the printing of the overall instrumentation (about 3 million census questionnaires and about 40,000 instructions to enumerators and supervisors). The statement of financial costs incurred during the population census must provide the number of the printed census questionnaires, instructions, and whether printing is in compliance with the Public Procurement Act? As well as …the issue of realized saving for the budget because of the use of the electronic census questionnaire?
• Total number of the enumerated permanent population in the country as of 1.02.2011 - 7364 thousand persons. Its formation involved the negative natural growth between the last two censuses in the amount of 389 thousand persons, and the negative balance of international migration in the amount of 175 thousand (306 thousand and 131 thousand emigrants immigrants). After the accession of Bulgaria in 2007 to the EU, mirror comparisons with other member states - the number of Bulgarian citizens abroad is much higher. The actual number of permanent population in Bulgaria is overvalued even after inclusion in the population of about 166 thousand people who have a current address in the country, but are not enumerated. Additional light would be obtained from the data collected in response to the permanent and current address of the person.
• Comparison of the results of question 7a (permanent address of the person) and 7b (current address of the person) of the population census questionnaire? Not all data can be published in one issue, but the results of the processing should be available to consumers. The results will shed additional light on the number of population in the country.
• High proportion of non-response to questions about "ethnic group" and mother tongue" and a very high proportion of non-response to the question of "religious denomination". The reasons vary and can be discussed, but attempts to hide this fact, and the dissemination and publication of data only about the persons who provided answers is a coarse manipulation that raises a number of speculations.
• According to the methodology developed, there is a difference between choosing not to answer to the voluntary questions (it is allowed by the law) and the persons replying "not self-defined." Are these people indeed persons who cannot identify themselves (as specified in the instructions for completion the census questionnaires)?
• Relationship between the answers to questions 12 and № 13 census questionnaires. From the analysis of the answers to these questions the picture of those 2 million and 300 thousand persons who did not respond for their belonging to a particular religion will be completed. Such an analysis is not presented.
• 157 858 persons are added for whom it is established that their current address is in the country, had not died, there is evidence of employment or are enrolled in school and are not enumerated. These persons are not referred to addresses and are enumerated as single-person households. Similar was the procedure with 9424 children under 5 years of age.
• How the people are added in the census questionnaires according to indications – e.g. according to marital status, education, etc. The data in the publications do not provide to have persons retained by these indications. This again raises the question of the relevance of the registers.
• Unrealistic number of households in the country. All added persons are referred to the group of single-person households. For the past 10 years the above mentioned have increased by 263 thousand and the total number of households - 84 thousand in a total reduction of the population during this period by half a million. The reasons: "elimination of controls for families and reducing controls for households and residential buildings. Comments of the experts were not taken into account. "(Oral instructions of the top-management).
• Unpublished (or unprocessed) results to question № 16 about the number of live-born children living abroad. The analysis of these data could provide for an expert assessment of Bulgarians abroad.
• "On the whole, the activities of Census 2011 were held under unprecedented and unjustified short time for regional division, development of information system, introduction of census questionnaires, complicated conditions for participation in the introduction of experts from RSO’s and inadequate labour remuneration". - Quote from the ad-hoc group report.
• The enumerated buildings as of 1.02.2011 are about 64 thousand less than in the previous population census. Not really enumerated were about 80 thousand residential buildings on the account of the "boom" of construction during the period 2001 – 2011. The impact on the results is completing the map of the residential building after the online census.
• "In general, the activities of Population Census 2011 were held under unprecedented and unjustified short time for regional division, development of information system, introduction of census maps, complicated conditions for participation in the introduction of experts from RSO and inadequate remuneration of labour". - Quote from the conclusions in report of ad hoc group in the NSI, including leading experts in the team "Census - 2011".
• "There were a lot of mistakes when filling in the e-census data about the housing area and floor area of the auxiliary premises. After the unification of the array it was necessary to make auto corrections regarding the size of dwelling and number of rooms". - Quote from the ad-hoc group report.
• Financial statements for the census – The governing bodies of state financial control should do a financial audit to determine the distribution of funds of the itemized budget for the census and for the calculation of the "disbursements / enumerated persons". From the amount paid to enumerators and renumeration rates per person, systematic unique code, building, residential building can be produced an assessment for the accuracy of the total population renumeration.
Demographic situation in Bulgaria is one of the hottest topics in recent years. Flaws in the legislation on international migration and refugee flows, performance of various elections in the country almost every year will continue to require accurate data on the population of Bulgaria and its adequate statistical coverage. Entry of the new Regulation (EC ) № 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11.20.2013, laying down annual demographic statistics as the main source for the study and identification of a wide range of policies at national and regional level. Demographic information is decisive in voting by a qualified majority in the Council and the Member States should provide Eurostat data for the general population at the national level to the reference point or period within 8 months after the reference year. Having in mind the development of modern information and communication technologies it would be unacceptable to update the true population in the country once in every 10 years.
Suggestions:
1. To perform a single time micro population census based on a comprehensive update of the list of census districts with the included residential buildings, dwellings, households and persons used in population Census 2011. The persons to be covered only according to a very limited number of indications (gender, age, residence);
2. To make annual updates the enumeration districts and control areas on the basis of micro population census using the potential of geographical information systems. This update is important for conducting sample surveys of the NSI.
3. To develop a detailed analytical report for the last two censuses – lessons learned and future activities. This is the only way to meet the emerging on the horizon new round of censuses around 2020.
