The section Theory and Methodology of statistical studies incudes the article:
• The impact of big data (Big Data) on official statistics: opportunity or provocation - authors Dr. Bogdan Bogdanov, Deputy President of the National Statistical Institute, and Galya Stateva, National Statistical Institute, Sofia
This article is intended to familiarize the reader with the basic characteristics of big data (Big Data), their descriptive representation and the opportunities for their application in the production process of official statistics. The growth of information technology and data streams should be seen more as a need for comprehensive reform, not only as a necessity of extending the scope of official statistics. The emphasis is on the question: what should statistics be in the modern information society?
This article describes the connection between globalization and Big Data, which is essentially interdependent. The rapid development of information technology and the creation of massive flows of information predetermine the growth of the global economy. Conversely, the global economy cannot develop without information guiding in the required direction money, resources and manpower. The first attempt of SWOT analysis of big data that briefly summarizes the main conclusions regarding the possibilities for their use has been made.
The information is currently being created constantly, spontaneously and in unstructured form. Turning it into relevant, useful, constructive and positive energy and form is the task of statisticians and IT experts in the XXI century.
The section Statistical research and analysis includes the articles:
• Non-formal education as a component of lifelong learning - statistical aspects - author Prof. Dr. Margarita Atanasova, University of National and World Economy - Sofia
In contemporary dynamics of socio-economic development competitiveness is increasingly dependent on the quality of human capital and lifelong learning is emerging as a priority activity covering both formal education and training, and formal and informal learning. One of the leading targets set in the National Strategy for lifelong learning for the period 2014 - 2020 is increasing the participation of population 25-64 years of age in education and training from 1.5% in 2012 to more than 5% in 2020 (4-week reference period).
A key indicator by the help, of which to monitor annually the progress on this objective is the indicator ‘Relative share of the population (25 - 64 years of age) participating in education and training’ (Labour Force Survey), which according to the approved by Eurostat methodology currently covers both formal and informal learning. The main objective of this study is to outline the potential for clear presentation and understanding of observed forms of informal training, which creates prerequisites for improving the quality of statistics in this area. The article ends with concrete proposals for inclusion of various forms of informal training conducted by improving the methodological tools applied to the Labour Force Survey in Bulgaria, incl. and on the basis of useful foreign experience of other European countries.
• Popular misconceptions in verification of Statistical assumptions - author Assoc. Doc. Margarita Lambova, University of Economics - Varna
Presented are arguments concerning the interpretation of the results from statistical tests. Discussed are certain issues of the decision-making on the acceptance or rejection of a particular assumption, the emphasis being on the logic of the so-called p-value on the one hand, and on the other the computability of the certainty with which a particular hypothesis is accepted.
In accordance with the set research objective are revealed the main misconceptions with regard to the p-value assigned as a decision-making indicator in the statistical software, as well as with regard to the probability of the accepted hypothesis being true or false.
• Beyond GDP - author Valentin Chavdarov, National Statistical Institute - Sofia
The article examines the shortcomings of GDP as a summary measure of economic activity. Some of the shortcomings of GDP are due to lax financial regulations as well as the globalization of the economy. The loosening of regulations since the Great Depression and the activities of multinational companies with a goal to minimize the due taxes distort the economic reality and statistical data that reflect this reality.
The article reflects the author's opinion and does not commit the National Statistical Institute.
• Interviewers’ centre of the national statistical institute - history, present and expected future - author Deyan Slavov, RSO - Severoistok, National Statistical Institute
This article aims to show the evolution of the support centre with RSO - Varna since its creation during the pilot population and housing census in 2010 to its current functionality as interviewers’ centre of the National Statistical Institute. The opportunities for its upgrade to an information system designed to work with respondents and for organization of activity of the RSOs has been reviewed.
• Improving the effectiveness of the regional structure of the National Statistical Institute in the context of modern management concepts - part II - author Svetla Ivanova, RSO - Yugozapad, National Statistical Institute
Part II. Some management tools to help increase the efficiency of the Regional Statistical Offices (RSOs) - performance measuring systems through Balanced Scorecard and Quality Management
As outlined in the first article on this topic (‘Statistics’ Magazine No. 2/2016), RSOs offer extremely favourable environment for the replication of management tools from the private sector, as is the case with the balanced scorecard for performance measurement. In its application in RSOs, however, some peculiarities related to the context of external and internal factors of the operation should be taken into account. Defined also is the place of how to define the indicators so as to provide insight into the effectiveness and not just represent an aggregation of the results of the various activities and processes. Presented is the integration of activities and sub-activities of production processes in RSOs in GSBPM with the four universal parameters of management decisions - input, output, outcome and impact.
Building on the principles of the Code of European Statistical Practice, Total Quality Management (TQM), Data Quality Assessing Framework (DQAF) and a set of tools and procedures for quality assurance; RSOs can build their quality management system. This is proved by the submitted conformity of the principles of the Code of Statistical Practice with the criteria of EFQM and quality elements of the DQAF. The opportunity for implementation in RSOs of their own process of internal quality audit that is not certified but is in compliance with ISO 9001 warrants their leaders to declare that in the managed by them RSOs there is a good system of quality management. Adaptation of the criteria and sub-criteria of CAF2013 and its principles for the purposes of RSOs provide the heads of RSOs comfortable, modern and undemanding additional financial resource tool for self-assessment and subsequent benchmarking.
The section Information, reviews, consultations presents information about:
• Participation in seminar on ‘Purchasing power parities’ (Paris, France, may 19 to 20 2016), Martin Somov, National Statistical Institute - Sofia
The aim of the seminar was a joint discussion of some methodological issues and performance assessment, and setting of the next tasks.
Standing out among the discussed topics was the presentation of the technical means for collecting data (presentations of Denmark and Lithuania); revision of purchasing power parities (PPP) for the period 1995 - 2012 - Progress report (presentation of Eurostat); new aspects of the organization and management of PPP work by the OECD (OECD presentation); telecommunication services - new approaches (presentation of the Coordinator of consumer surveys); The questionnaire for seasonal goods to monitoring E2015-1 "Food, drinks and tobacco - results and evaluation" (presentation of Eurostat); calculation of PPPs through manufacturing method - Progress report (presentation of Eurostat); spatial coefficients (presentations of France, Norway and Germany).
The article includes methodological notes explaining the nature and objectives of the Programme for European comparisons.
• Physical energy flows accounts - author Irina Dencheva, National Statistical Institute - Sofia
This information aims to present a synthetic overview of one of the modules for the European economic environmental accounts - accounts for natural energy flows, or the so called Energy Bills. Designed to complement and enrich the annual energy statistics, Energy Bills are described by objectives, nature, scope and their characteristics. Listed are the main differences with annual energy balances and the data tables prepared for Eurostat.
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