The National Statistical Institute informs users of statistical information that the 3rd Issue for 2014 of the ‘Statistics’ magazine is published on the NSI’s website. The issue is in Bulgarian language with summaries in Bulgarian, English and Russian and includes the rubrics:
The Theory and methodology of statistical studies rubric presents the articles:
• A TAX-BENEFIT MICROSIMULATION MODEL FOR BULGARIA: OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROSS-COUNTRY SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS USING EUROMOD, authors – Associate Prof. Venelin Boshnakov, University of National and World Economy – Sofia, Associate Prof. Ekaterina Tosheva, University of National and World Economy – Sofia, Iva Taseva, University of Essex – United Kingdom
This paper aims to provide an introduction for experts in the field with benefits of the European model EUROMOD - microsimulation tax-benefit model within the framework of which there is a developed model for Bulgaria. Tax-benefit microsimulation is rarely used for policy analysis and design in Bulgaria because until recently no such reliable model existed. This has now been made possible with the use of EUROMOD which is a unique resource for national and comparative research. The different stages of its construction are described in the model: preparing the input micro-data utilised by the model; social security simulation; compensations tax and social insurance; validation of the results. Some possible applications of the model are demonstrated with examples of analyses at European level in a comparative plan. The usefulness of simulation analyses is evaluated in the field of distribution and redistribution of income inequality, poverty and incentives to work. Outlined are the main prospects for the future development and use of EUROMOD for the purposes of socio-economic analysis and the development of tax-transfer policies in Bulgaria.
• Unemployment rate monthly evaluation approaches based on data from the labour force survey – author - Alexander Naidenov, Ch. Assist. PhD, professor in University of National and World Economy – Sofia
One of the most important indicators of the state of the economy of a given country is the unemployment rate. The need for thorough and timely analysis of the socio-economic processes in relation to the implementation of control over their development, as well as compliance with the requirements set by Eurostat for the ‘production’ of monthly estimates of the unemployment rate and harmonization of the methodology in the Community defines the search of approaches for monthly assessment of the unemployment level.
In statistical theory and practice there is a wide variety of methods and approaches for monthly assessment of unemployment, but their ‘ready-made’ use is impossible in Bulgarian conditions. The reasons for this are the specific characteristics and resources available in our country not only in terms of available data, but also in relation to the level of preparation of the methodological teams. The article presents the main approaches according to the specific opportunities for their application. Possible approaches to solving the ‘issue’ in the preparation of monthly estimates of unemployment are the direct assessments using techniques of weighting (calibration) of data in order to adjust the monthly data on population in different categories, and indirect estimates combining data from the NFS and applying modelling techniques (extrapolation and interpolation) of development in the series of the employed and the unemployed. A brief description of the steps of the application of these methods is made, and possible software to assist their implementation are indicated.
Based on experimental study with data from the Labour Force Survey it is established that the monthly assessment of the level of unemployment is entirely possible, and the most adequate method of evaluation is the direct one, since with the alleged error is smallest.
The Statistical research and analyses rubric includes the articles:
• Statistical review of education – author - Stoyan Baev, Consultant in education and lifelong learning statistics
The problems of the education system of Bulgaria and its information provision are nothing new, are not fully identified and analysed, and the negative consequences of this are deepening. They are mainly expressed in the unsatisfactory results of the functioning of the formal education system. The article reviews only one part of the socially significant issues for which statistical data are available.
Pre-school education and school-prep fail to fully cover all children subject to mandatory education. Another important problem is that in the ‘output’ of the mandatory pre-school education pass children who are not prepared to enter first grade. Primary education suffers from low quality - about 40% of 15 year olds are functionally illiterate. Against this background and the background of the structures of the education systems of the EU countries in which the duration of basic education is generally nine years the idea of a 7-year period seems completely illogical. Traditions in vocational education lead to annual reproduction of ‘State admission plan’ which is less consistent with the real needs of the economy of experts. Higher education traditionally fails to meet the needs of the economy and ‘produces’ experts of numerous, in some cases strange and unnecessary specialties.
MES Information systems carry irreplaceable and important function of information assurance of the management of the education system. Along with the positive sides, the functioning of the MES information systems is accompanied by a number of problems and shortcomings, which are summarized in the article. Possible measures and actions to address these deficiencies are mainly related to the construction and implementation of an integrated information system of MES and NSI and from it is expected to produce a number of positive results, which are referred to in the final part of the article.
• Big data - opportunities, challenges or threats before the official statistics – author - Galia Stateva, National Statistical Institute
The article mainly discusses the role of big data in official statistics. Emphasis is placed on the issue of what happens when official statistics meets the ‘big data’. Defined are the main opportunities and challenges before the official statistics in the ‘big data’ era, ‘new’ methodology, high quality, confidentiality and legal issues, IT technologies, financial resources, the necessity for different thinking and skills, new policies and directives.
Discussed is how big data can be used for production of official statistics in various ways: by totally replacing statistical sources by complementing information by combining data from different sources or provision of completely new statistical figures that can complement the available statistical information.
Described are methods of statistics and their application regarding big data, referring to some examples of European practice for the use of big data in the statistical production process.
The official statistics clearly notes the need not work in isolation but in close cooperation with academia, commercial partners from the private sector, Eurostat and the European Commission, other international organizations and national statistical offices. The article explains in detail the mechanism and tools for integration within the European Statistical System in short, medium and long term.
The Historical development of the statistical theory and practice rubric presents the article:
• Changes in the number of population in bulgarian lands of the ottoman empire – author - Dr., Professor Dimitar Arkadiev, St. St. Cyril and Methodius’ University - Veliko Tarnovo
The population growth and the changes in some of its structures approximately in modern borders of Bulgaria during the period 1500-1878 are discussed. At that time these territories are part of the Ottoman Empire. Compared to the mid-14th century the population decreased by more than 1 million, or more than twice. The reasons for changes in population numbers are reflected. The main ones are: direct physical extermination as a result of the Ottoman invasion, kidnapping as a military prey, migrations, plague epidemics and others. Major changes occur in the religious and ethnic structure of the population. The main reason for that is the process of Islamization - voluntary and forceful. The assessments are made mainly of data from tax records of households and population censuses since the beginning of the 30s of the 19th century. Each of these sources has certain disadvantages. Systematical underestimation the actual number of population and distortion of some of its structures was found out. In methodological and organizational terms the censuses in the Ottoman Empire fall decades behind from the advanced European countries and the USA. It was found that the population grew from 1.2 million in 1500 to 3.4 million in 1875, or about 3 times.
The Information, reviews, consultations rubric presents an article about a project of the NSI:
• Information on the project "Implementation of SDMX technical and statistical standards in the National Statistical System of Bulgaria" - authors Galia Stateva, National Statistical Institute and Kostadin Georgiev, National Statistical Institute
The information describes the activities and results achieved in the implementation of the "Implementation of SDMX technical and statistical standards in the National Statistical System of Bulgaria" project. The project lasted 24 months (December 2012 - November 2014) at a total value of € 113,000. Its successful implementation was carried out jointly by statistical and IT experts at the NSI.
The main objectives of the project are implementation and promotion of technical and statistical SDMX standard for exchange of statistical data and metadata in the national statistical practice and to achieve vertical integration between the National Statistical System and the European Statistical System.
The results of the project will be useful not only for the NSI, but also for the National Statistical System as a whole. The established SDMX-RI and the availability of Web-services for database distribution can be supplemented with new statistical areas in order to exchange data and metadata at national and international level. The latest tools for sharing and dissemination of statistical data and metadata in the European Statistical System by applying the SDMX standard are applied in the process of implementation of the project.
