National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria informs users of statistical information that the volume 3 - 4/2013 of Statistics Journal is available. The issue is only in Bulgarian (summary in English and Russian). In this volume the following chapters are included:
І. In Theory and methodology of the statistical surveys, the following articles are published:
• Factor models for the general, direct and indirect impact of mortality by age on the change in the expectation of life - author Emil Hristov, PhD, Prof.
The article presents the main results of a complete and independent study carried out by the author in two parts. The first one was published by the journal in 2012, Issues I-II, and concerns only the general impact of mortality by age on the difference 
between the mean expectations of life of two populations. In order to ensure the link with the previous article, here are presented briefly only the most important results of the first part of the study. In this part the author reaches and proves three factor models, in which the difference is replaced for greater convenience of the analysis with the difference 
between the numbers of surviving person-years of the two populations. The three models are expressed through a new factor variable: 
, proposed by the author to show the number of persons surviving the age interval x, x + 1 years, which is alternative (opposite) to the difference 
showing the number of dying persons. The new variable 
is reached through the difference between the surviving persons: 
. With the first factor model: 
person-years estimates the contribution of the general impact of mortality in separate age intervals from x to w years on the final differences 
and 
. For the entire age interval from x = 0 years to w years it is known as “model for final effects”. The second factor model is also reached through the differences 
, but for the age intervals from 0 to m years: 
. What is characteristic for this model is that 
is determined through the multiple participation 
times for of every age interval. For the entire interval from 0 to m = w years, the second model turns into the model for final effects. The third factor model uses the more precise indicator 
– the number of the living in the interval 
years. It employs the precise formula of Chiang for 
and its advantages to the number of the live 
. With the differences 
the third factor model is: 
, where 
is the difference in survivability of dying persons 
and 
to mean dying age 
and 
years in the interval years. When 
years the result is the difference .
• GDP by the income approach - assessment of employees’ compensation in comparable prices (the previous year and 2005 prices) - authors Elka Atanasova, Director, Macroeconomic Statistics Directorate, NSI.
The subject of the study is the technology for compiling GDP information based on the income approach; it is also aimed at proving the expedience of implicit following of the SNA and ESA’95 regulations in its compilation and development as a guarantee for the ‘production’ of quality and fully comparable by the European standards data, required for GDP compilation using this method. In order to achieve a more thorough analysis and define the data tendencies, eliminating price influence, the compensation of employees has been developed using comparable prices of previous year and also using year 2005 prices; for the other components of the income approach a concept for development has been presented. In this way, presenting the components using comparable prices, greater opportunities for analysis arise. The future work for data quality improvement in the field of national accounts in this aspect will be to include an additional survey, development and practical application of additional evaluations for thoroughness regarding the scope and a wider spectrum of criteria for verification of the main components of the method. Thus the acceptable differences in GDP volume between the calculations of the three practical methods - the production approach, the final use approach and the income approach - will be guaranteed to be minimal.
• Algoritm for otpimization of costs with value added in the production -for sustainable development of economy - author Assen Kovachev, PhD, Prof.
Sustainable development as a process of widespread change in economic development is mainly focused on increasing its productive potential. The insurance of optimal structure in the process of development of the economic system has a crucial role for it.
Unlike the used now in science and business practice static approach, the dynamic systems theory is in the basis of the presented algorithm. Main are the recurrent actions between the input and output variables in the development of systems. In the dynamic theory the changes in the input parameters - regarding the resources arе determined by those of the output - products and services and vice versa, i.e. between them act recurrent dependencies in the development of the economic system.
The theoretical prerequisites in dynamic theory of systems and the algoritmical contents of RPSD iterative procedure for optimization of costs with value added in production (incl. the services), together with the results for Bulgarian economy in the last decade are presented in the report.
• Calibration of data from social surveys - authors Jordan Kaltchev, PhD, Associate Professor, South-West University ‘Neofit Rilski’ and Vera Veleva, Chief Assistant, South-West University ‘Neofit Rilski’.
A significant problem in the implementation of representative sample surveys is not covering due to various reasons of all units in the planned sample sizes. These gaps lead to violations of the representativeness and accuracy of the empirical data. The undertaken by the designers of sample surveys organizational and methodological techniques and tools cannot always compensate for the loss of content as a result of the unexplored units. Based on this argument, the paper monitors the influence of lack of range in the accuracy of statistical estimates received and the rationale for the need to weigh the results obtained is supported in order to reduce the amount of non-stochastic error. As a solution of the problem the advantages of the developed modern statistical and mathematical models for calibration of data samples are highlighted. Based on the specialized literature, the nature of the calibration system is briefly presented as a new system review in the theory and practice of sample surveys and opportunities to achieve objective assessments whenever there is default and even some other sampling errors.
Application of calibration is illustrated by a specific example based on data from a study using g-CALIB, based in SPSS.
In conclusion it is stated that calibration is an optimization process, unlike other methods of weighting and this feature should be taken into account when using this procedure.
ІІ. In Development of the statistical theory and practice, the following articles are included:
• Linkages between expectations and economic dynamics in EU-27 - author Anton Gerunov, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Sofia ‘St. Kliment Ohridski’.
The paper studies the dynamics of economic expectations in the EU member states over the period 01.1998 to 05.2013 with particular focus on consumer confidence, business climate indicators and inflation expectations. It could be concluded that expectations do not converge to a uniform value within the EU but rather that groups of countries with similar dynamics cluster together. Additionally the factors influencing inflation expectations are explored thus providing evidence for the thesis that these are heterogeneously formed and dynamically changing.
• Bispectral analysis of the impact of direct foreign investment, unemployment level and monetary aggregate M2 on cyclicity of the final household consumption - author Georgi Chervenski, Assistant Professor, Statistics Department at the University of Economics, Varna
This article explores, with bispectral analysis, the impact of direct foreign investment, unemployment level and monetary aggregate M2 on the cyclicity of the final households’ consumption. Proved is the presence of statistically significant cyclical components in the dynamic series for final consumption of households, direct foreign investment and the level of unemployment. In monetary aggregate M2 does not have statistically significant cyclical component. With bispectral analysis by phase spectrum it is proved that the cyclicality of final consumption of households depends on direct foreign investment and on the level of unemployment in Bulgaria.
• A decomposition of the difference in life expectancy through data envelopment analysis and its relationship with the method of Das Gupta (1978) - author Petya Braynova, A doctoral candidate at the ‘Statistics and Econometrics’ Department to the University of National and World Economy, Sofia.
The current article presents a nonparametric method called Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in the role of a decomposition technique and shows its relationship with the classic method of Das Gupta (1978) for decomposition of the difference in life expectancy (LE) between two populations. According to the data, classified by two factors (I and J) Das Gupta’s method decomposes the difference in LE as the sum of the net I-effect, the net J-effect and the residual effect. DEA decomposes the difference in LE (total effect) by both factors - I and J - with or without taking into account the different extent of influence they have over the LE of the explored populations. As a result, a decomposition formula is produced, none net effects are derived and also the results are dependent of a fixed parameter, which is a ratio of the factor weights. Hence, a problem concerning the comparability between
DEA-decomposition technique and Das Gupta’s method arises. The current article provides a methodological solution to this problem of the form of numerical characteristics independent of the limitations of the analysis.
ІІI. In Statistical surveys and analysis is included article:
• Russian emigration to Bulgaria according to the 1920 and 1926 population census - authors Penka Peykovska, Assoc. Prof., Dr. and Niana Kisselkova, Chief expert, NSI.
According to its size and historical significance the White Russian emigration to Bulgaria in the interwar period is comparable to the “Rossiiskoe zarubezhie” in Paris, Prague, Belgrade, bearing in mind that Russian immigrants in Bulgaria, as well as those in Belgrade, had a significant contribution to the development of culture and science of the host country. Over the past two decades the subject of the Russian emigration to Bulgaria has been actively in the sight of Bulgarian historians for various reasons: rethinking written on this topic during the socialist era, the need for clearing the ideological perspective on it, and the creation of in-depth studies based on Bulgarian archive materials.
This paper aims at presenting some demographic aspects of the Russian emigration in Bulgaria, i.e. the dynamics of the Russian emigration flow to Bulgaria, its starting points and ethnic composition, religious affiliation and internal migration of the Russian population within the country, and its gender structure. The envisioned demographic processes and phenomena are investigated by quantitative analysis of the data coming from the population censuses conducted in Bulgaria in 1920 and 1926. Population census as a special kind of historical source has attracted our attention mainly because it has not been of interest to researchers studying the problems of White Russian emigration.
The analyzed 1920 and 1926 population census in Bulgaria provide detailed and thorough (and in some cases brand new) picture of the demographic outlook of the Russian community in the country in the 1920s, which in other statistical sources is reflected only superficially, or is entirely lacking, especially in terms of dynamics, starting points, ethnic, confessional and gender structure of the migration flow from Russia to Bulgaria, internal migration of the Russian population in Bulgaria.
Moreover in the two censuses a uniform methodology was used for collecting data on the demographic indicators we are interested in (i.e. sex, citizenship, nationality, confession, mother tongue, place of birth), which makes them comparable and allows us to trace some demographic processes within the diaspora.
ІV. In Information, reviews, consultations, the following information is published:
• Grand celebration on the occasion of the International Year of Statistics
• The 6th Conference of the European Forum for Geostatistics - author Arslan Ahmedov, Chief expert, NSI.
• Scientific Conference, University of Economics - Varna - author Dimitar Radilov, Prof., PhD, Statistics Department at the University of Economics, Varna.
• The World of Statistics
