National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria informs users of statistical information that the volume 1 - 2/2012 of Statistics Journal is available. The issue is only in Bulgarian (summary in English and Russian). In this volume are included the following chapters:
I. Theory and methodology of the statistical surveys.
II. Statistical surveys and analysis.
III. Historical development of the statistical theory and practice.
IV. Information, reviews, consultations.
І. In Theory and methodology of the statistical surveys, the following articles are published:
• Methodological and theoretical problems in statistical science - author Ivanka Saykova, Prof. Dr. of Economic Sciences, Statistics and Econometrics Department, UNWE (University of National and World Economy).
The article discusses some of the most important implications caused by the missing clear vision for the subject matter and the character of statistical science. Highlights are mainly placed on the development of statistical methodology, but the problems are related in no lesser degree to the theory. The conclusion is that the missing subject has long time ago been turned into a barrier and acts as a mechanism against the development of statistical science. The damages to the statistical practice are a logical consequence. And there is something more – the silence or the obvious preference (agreement) among the professional community not to discuss the issue of the subject matter of statistical science.
• Factor models for the general impact of mortality by dge on the change in the expectation of life - author Emil Hristov, Prof., Ph.D. in Economics.
The article focuses on the important demographic problem of the impact of variations in mortality by age on the change in the life expectancy. In earlier article of the journal (2003, Issue I) the author proposed a single solution of this problem which was refuted by the late Prof. B. Rusev (2010, Issues I-II). The presented article comes in response to Prof. Rusev’s critical position in which the author not only defends his earlier arguments but develops his idea further to four interrelated factor models. The methodology of these models is based on the concept of process analysis and the known relationships and dependencies between indicators in life tables used to calculate the expectation of life.
ІІ. In Statistical surveys and analysis, the following articles are included:
• Synthetic (total) rates in demography - author Marta Sugareva, Professor of Statistics and Demography, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, „Paisii Hilendarski” Plovdiv University.
The methodological problems of constructing and interpreting a specific group of indicators in demography, known as the so-called „total rates”, are being discussed in the article. These rates, calculated on the basis of partial rates (usually - age specific rates) display the intensity of a given demographic process (fertility, nuptiality, divorces) - during a calendar year within only one synthetic figure. The total rates possess the quality to be „free” from the effects of the population age structure.
In Bulgaria the use of these rates is relatively rare; there are some difficulties to explain and present them to non-experts and to the media. There is still some terminological ambiguity, and unnecessary disputes in the field. All this implies the need to further clarify the content and the cognitive value of the total rates in demography, as well as their further popularization among the users of demographic information.
• The body mass index effect and tobacco smoking effect on the difference in life expectancy - author Petya Braynova, PhD student at the Statistics and Econometrics Academic Department, University of National and World Economy, Sofia.
According to the data from Eurostat for 2008, the difference in life expectancy between men and women in Bulgaria, at 18 years of age is a little over 7 years. The current article presents an age-decomposition of the difference in life expectancy by the Body mass index effect and the tobacco smoking effect separately for 6 age groups (18 - 24, 25 - 34, 35 - 44, 45 - 54, 55 - 64 and 65 - 74). For that purpose, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied. DEA is a tool for comparison of homogeneous units based on measurements of their efficiency, defined as a ratio of the products and the resources used in the production process. Each of the age groups represents a homogeneous unit. The total number of units is 12 - 6 units for men and 6 units for women. The total amount of the currently lived years and the years thereafter is considered as the product of a healthy lifestyle, characterized by the presence of normal body mass index and restraint from tobacco smoking.
• Parallels, nature and characteristics of research „Household Budgets Survey” and „Statistics on Income and Living Conditions” - author Bogdan Bogdanov, Ph.D., Head of Households Income and Expenditure Department in the NSI, and Desislava Dimitrova, State expert in Households Income and Expenditure Department in the NSI.
There is a review of the distinctive features of the „Household budgets survey” and „Statistics on Income and Living Conditions”. There are analyses of the differences in the scope and units surveyed, sampling methodologies, periods of registration of data and the tools used. Based on data obtained from both surveys, there is a comparative analysis of estimates of poverty indicators of the population. The comment on both surveys is useful for the customers when using the data from them. The systematization of the metadata for the surveys can be used to achieve better comparability matching and coherence of work during their implementation in the coming years.
• Census of population and housing fund in the Republic of Bulgaria in 2011 - analysis of housing fund data
Housing censuses provide reliable, comprehensive and detailed information about the number and structure of buildings and housing by administrative-territorial units. Brief analysis for the development of buildings and housing fund by data from the previous censuses is being presented. Based on comparable data, changes in basic design features of buildings and functional characteristics of housing fund are tracked. Key indicators of housing and the availability of durable items for domestic provision of households in the country are also analysed.
The presented analysis for the condition and development of buildings and housing fund as of 1.02.2011 is supplemented by similar analyses performed in years of previous censuses after 1965.
ІII. In Historical development of the statistical theory and practice are presented analytical information on buildings and housing fund from the middle of the previous century until now:
• Characteristics of some sides of the living conditions of the population (According to the Census of Housing Fund as of 1.12.1965) (Reprint with cuts) - author Stamen Marinov.
• Population, Housing Fund and Farms Census in the Republic of Bulgaria in 2001 - analysis of housing fund data (Reprint with cuts).
ІV. In Information, reviews, consultations, the following information is published:
• Bulgarian communities in Hungary in the 19th - 20th centuries. Migrations and historical-demographic review - author Penka Peykovska, PhD, Institute for Historical Studies at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia.
The monograph (ISBN 978-954-2903-07-9) is dedicated to the Bulgarian communities in Hungary - the Banat Bulgarians (until 1918), the Bulgarian market-gardeners (until 1960), the Bulgarian students (until 1944) and intellectuals (until 2000). It presents their demographic characteristics and some socio- anthropological aspects of their development in the 19th and 20th Centuries - structures of gender, age, religion, marriage, labor activity and occupation, literacy and education, as well as their identity, integration and assimilation in the light of quantitative indicators of bilingualism, ethnically heterogeneous families, citizenship etc. Seasonal labor, child and educational migrations of Bulgarian population between Hungary and Bulgaria are examined to make a contribution to the history of population movements between the Balkans and Central Europe.
The annual subscription price (4 issues, incl. mailing costs) amounts to EUR 22.
Price for Volume 1 - 2/2012: EUR 11.
Prices include VAT.
Subscriptions at the following address:
National Statistical Institute
Administrative Services Division
2, Panayot Volov St.
1038 Sofia
Bulgaria
e-mail: [email protected]
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