National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria informs users of statistical information that the volume 3 - 4/2010 of Statistics Journal is available. The issue is only in Bulgarian (summary in English and Russian). In this volume are included the following chapters:
I. In Theory and methodology of the statistical surveys, the following articles are published:
• Concerning the cognitive essence of the autocorrelation in the time series - author Lubomir Ivanov, Ph.D., Associate Professor at Mathematics and Statistics Department ‘D. A. Tzenov’ Academy of Economics - Svishtov.
In the paper we derive a general measure of the intrinsic regularities in the time series. The measure is named ‘coefficient of autodetermination’ after the determination coefficient in the regression analysis. We present a method for estimation of this new coefficient via the autoregressive representation of any stationary time series. We show how to compute the coefficient on the base of the ACF of the time series. Additionally we apply difference filter and derive the formula for estimation of the autodetermination coefficient for non-stationary time series. The empirical part of the paper consists of estimation of the autodetermination coefficient for four time series that characterize the social and economic development of Bulgaria: gross domestic product, employment, consumer price index and male birth per 1000 female births. We show that the price indexes can be modeled better than the others and that prices and employment can be forecasted with higher accuracy than gross domestic product.
• Synonymous solutions from the index factor analysis for homogeneous and heterogeneous production – author Emil Hristov, Ph.D. in economics, Senior research associate I degree.
This article presents synonymous solutions from the index factor analysis for homogeneous and heterogeneous production. The solutions are derived from the relative form of the additive factor analysis of the same productions in the previous article by the same author. The relative change of the value mass of the heterogeneous production using the index form of the analysis is explained with the two factor indices of relative changes of the average price and the natural quantity of one single commodity. Factor indices are constructed according to the sufficient condition of the author for synonymous solutions. The latter contain combined effects only of synonymous changes of the two factors. The other heterogeneous production is first presented as final multitude of precisely defined types of heterogeneous commodities and after that as heterogeneous aggregate. Within it, the different types of goods are distinguished by price and quantities in different natural measures. The relative change of the value mass of this type of production is analyzed with two new factor indices for average relative changes of the prices and the natural quantities of the different goods. As distinction from the traditional Paashe and Laspeyers indices, the new factor indices are constructed also according to the sufficient condition for synonymous solutions.
• Possibility of accounting measurement of the transaction expenses of companies - authors Teodor Sedlarski, Chief Assistant at Commercial Faculty of Sofia State University ‘St. Climent Ochridski’; Sofia and Iliana Ankova, Chief Assistant at Commercial Faculty of Sofia State University ‘St. Climent Ochridski’; Sofia.
This article gives the proposal for modification (expansion) of the model of accounting reporting of expenses with the goal of creation of information for the size and the type of the transaction expenses at the level of separate enterprise or organization. Based on the worldwide prevailing classification systems for the transaction expenses it is reasonable to introduce a new system of additional sub accounts and analytical accounts which help taking management decisions within the company, concerning the organization of the transactions. When aggregating the results this newly proposed approach may be used as an alternative of the current methods for measuring the transaction expenses of the national economy.
II. In Statistical surveys and analysis, the following articles are included:
• Measures of skewness - author Todor Kaloyanov, Ph.D., Associate Professor at Statistics and Econometrics Department of the University of National and World Economy, Sofia.
The paper presents a comparative analysis of five asymmetry measures. These coefficients are computed for distributions of live born children according mother age. The study used data for Bulgaria – all new born children, first and second during the period 1961-2008. Our comparative analysis is focused on two aspects, which highlight the statistical performance of a descriptive measure: cognitive sense and the causes for differences of their values. We examine the relation skewness-kurtosis for distribution different of normal.
• Structural development of the income of population in Bulgaria for the period 1992 - 2008 - author Nina Jankova, Ph.D, Professor at Regional and Sectoral Economics Section at the Research Economic Institute of the Bulgarian Academy of Science, Sofia.
In this article are presented the results of the survey of the changes in the structure of the income of the population for the period 1992-2008. A new methodological approach has been used for research of the structural changes and heterogeneity at the basis of which is the Evclidis distance between the compared structures and the possibility for decomposition of the entire structural change to two factor influences – that is, change in the level of the heterogeneity and change of the direction of the heterogeneity. Proven evidence is given, along with the coefficient of Gini, in the research of the unequality of income of the population and together with review of the structure of their income. The mutual dependence between the structural changes (differences) and the income growth is the focus of this article.
III. In Historical development of the statistical theory and practice are presented some authentic publications of famous Bulgarian and foreign authors who have imposed significant influence on the development of the Bulgarian statistics and uplift of its international reputation:
• Correlation and causality - author O. N. Anderson.
IV. In Information, reviews, consultations, the following information is published:
• 96 Conference of the Director Generals of the National Statistical Institutes of the EU Member States (DGINS) - author Veneta Petrova, Head of International Cooperation and European Projects Department at the National Statistical Institute
The 96th Conference of the Director Generals of the National Statistical Institutes (DGINS) was held on 30th September 2010 in Sofia, Bulgaria. The Prime Minister of the Republic of Bulgaria, Mr Boyko Borissov, the President of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung and the Deputy Chairman of the Council of Economic Analysis for the French Prime Minister underlined that the growing societal and political demand to the measuring progress, well-being and sustainable development is a key issue for the official statistics. Within the three sessions the EU statisticians reported and discussed the more comprehensive ways to respond of the new requirements of the society. The Sofia Memorandum Measuring Progress, Well-Being and Sustainable Development is published in Bulgarian.
• From beneficiary to consultant.The history of one growth: Twinning projects in NSI’s practice - author Nina Kisselkova, Head of Management of EU Funds Sector at the National Statistical Institute.
On 13 November 2009, a two-year Twinning Project AZ08/ENP-PCA/FI/06 ‘Support to the State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SSC) to reach European standards in national accounts, non-observed economy, business statistics and producer price index’ was launched amounting to EUR 900 000. The Twinning is implemented by a consortium between the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Senior Partner) and the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria (Junior Partner). The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan is Beneficiary of the project.
For first time the NSI provides consultation in non-EU countries within an EU-project. The functions of Junior Project Leader and Coordinator of Component 3 ‘Business Statistics’ are assigned to leading NSI experts. The NSI also seconded the Resident Twinning Advisor who works in a close contact with the Beneficiary institution in Baku to implement the project. Four other NSI experts are taking part in the Twinning as consultants.
