Statistics Journal - volume 1 - 4/2009

National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria informs users of statistical information that the volume 1 - 4/2009 of Statistics Journal is issued and available on the web site of NSI. In this volume, the following chapters are included:

 

 

I. In Theory and methodology of the statistical surveys, the following articles are published:

 

• Eighty years since the first issue of the Statistical Bulletin; Quarterly Bulletin of the Directorate General Statistics – author: Iordan Kalchev, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Chief Editor of the Statistical Bulletin, Head of Demographic Statistics Division at NSI, Sofia, 2 P. Volov, e-mail: [email protected]

 

This heading article is dedicated to the 80-th Anniversary since the first issue of the Statistical Bulletin in Bulgaria. The main emphasis is put on the role of the Bulletin for the development of the statistical thought and preservation of the spirit, experience and achievements of generations of representatives of the Bulgarian statistical science and practice, as well as the contemporary contribution of the Bulletin in the reflection and analysis of the socio-economic processes within the country and the international experience.

 

• Reporting of the official statistics - author Mariana Kotzeva, Ph.D., Associate Professor, President of the National Statistical Institute.

The following article presents the content and the scope of the official statistics. Within their context, the legal framework which is the basis for development of the activities of the National Statistical Institute (NSI) of Bulgaria is presented; giving it professional autonomy and the requirements to the annual report of NSI concerning the fulfillment of its duties and handed to the Prime-Minister and the public. An emphasis is applied on the activities carried out for public information, the procedures and criteria applied in defining the priorities, content and the scope of the annual statistical programs. It is also underlined the key role of NSI in defining the priorities of statistics and recognition of NSI as important and reliable source of information and consulting for customers and respondents.

 

• The place of the statistical science within the statistical activities through the first half of XXI century - author Dimitar Radilov, Ph.D, associate professor at Statistics Department at the Economic University - Varna city.

In this article are presented the knowledges of the statistical science through the first half of the XXI century within the statistical activities, according to the priorities of the information society as social structure. The knowledges of the statistical science are product, as well as tool and condition for statistical activity. Its priorities are: 1) for the long term needs of statistical data; 2) for the future of the international statistical science and activity, directly linked to the statistical education and profession; and 3) for conversion of the knowledge of the statistical science into methodological innovations within the statistical activity, etc. The development of the statistical science as information metascience through the first part of the XXI century is closely related to the structuring of its theoretical knowledge to conceptual, analytical and interpretational, distributed via education and statistical professional activity.

 

• Challenges before the supply of information - author Ivanka Saikova, Ph.D., Professor of Statistics.

This article discusses the need of critical assessment and revisions of the concepts, upon which is determined the content of the information in the statistical and other similar information systems. The new information technologies allow access to better and larger volume of information. Nevertheless, the information needed by the managers is always in deficit. This shortage makes again so important the question of what information is needed by the management. The supported answers of this question must be searched through revision and change of the concepts, over which are developed in content relation the relevant information systems. The fourth information revolution is identified by the refreshment and change of the existent concepts.

 

• Statistical groupings, distributions and structures and their characteristics - author Encho Jekov, Director of the Regional Office of the National Insurance Institute - Bourgas.

The following article presents the discussion on what is common and what is different between the definitions “statistical distribution” and “statistical structure”. For that purpose, the main momentary characteristics of the statistical  distribution and the statistical groupings are analysed aiming at giving an answer of the question what they are dependant of and how strictly they can be determined as characteristics of the statistical structure as well. This article also proposes a new broader understanding of the definition “structure” and gives a reason for its using. It is proven that many of the characteristics, considered as main parameters of the statistical distribution, in particular the so called “normed characteristics”, are actually dependant much more of the elements of the statistical structure than the distribution itself.

 

• Matrix models for prognosis of the population through indirect estimation of the external migration - author Yana Gencheva-Dimova, Extramural fellow at CES of BAS, senior expert at TSB - Plovdiv.

The method used is the relation between defined initial population at age of five and its transition to final population at higher age. Due to lack of up-to-date information for external migration after 1989, the migration growth by sex and age has been estimated implicitly by the author’s method. Each growth through the period 1991 - 2000 has been divided to two growths: for the first five-year period and for the next one. Cohort probabilities for deaths and migration growth through the five-year periods have been created by using the data for deaths and migration growth by age.

 

• About the definition ‘standart deviation’ - author Ekaterina Tosheva, Ph.D., assistant professor at Statistics and Econometrics Department of the University of National and World Economy, Sofia.

This article presents the essence, study capabilities and methods for assessment of the standart deviation. The standart deviation, together with the coefficients of correlation are the two main groups of indicators for the so called in the english literature ‘effect size’. The use of standart deviation is suitable for methaanalysis and for single surveys as well. In this article are presented the essence, ways of interpreting, advantages and limits of the standart deviation, as well as particular example for its  application for single surveys.

 

II. In Statistical surveys and analysis, the following articles are included:

 

• Serbian composite index as an instrument for the measuring of short term trends of the economic acitivity – authors: Proff. Dragan Vukmirovic, Ph.D., Director of the Statistical Bureau of Republic of Serbia; Andra Milojic, Rade Ciric, Statistical Bureau of Republic of Serbia; Jovanka Vukmirovic, Ph.D., Ministry of Economics and Regional Development of Republic of Serbia.

The global financial and economic crisis has led to a considerable fall of the domestic trade turnover, investment activity, and industrial production as well as of the production in other industries. Such circumstances require an overview of the effects of economic measures over a period not exceeding that of quarter and annual data. Consequently, this paper presents the methodological basis for the Serbian composite index that yield exhaustive information on trends of the economic activity on monthly level. Elementary basis for the calculation is described in the OECD Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide.

 

• Condition and dynamics of the level of female fertility in bulgaria through the period 1961 - 2008 - author Todor Kaloyanov, Ph.D., Associate Professor at Statistics and Econometrics Department of the University of National and World Economy, Sofia.

This article presens the survey of the condition and dynamics of the level of female fertility through the period 1961 - 2008. The analysis is followed on the basis of the total coefficient of fertility - total, first, second and third range of the liveborn child. This study is realised total for the country, cities and villages. An attempt has been made to specify the main features of the dynamics of females’ fertility in our country for a period of nearly 50 years. Based on the analysis, some assumptions for the future level of the females’ fertility in Bulgaria for the next years have been made.

 

• Modeling the link between immigrant’s bank remittances and the basic macroeconomic indicators - author Stela Tzanova, Assistant Professor at Statistics and Mathematics Department of The Economy Academy ‘D. A. Tzenov’ - Svishtov.

The main idea of this article is to analyse the influence of the amounts received from immigrants as basic position of the BNB’s Balance of Payments (BoP), over the main macroeconomic indicators through the model of implanted correction mechanism (Error Correction Model - ЕСМ). The data has quarterly frequency and comprises the period of beginning of 2001 until the fi rst quarter of 2008. Analysis goes through two phases: the first connects the indicators at macro level - for analysis and assessment of the influence of the economic and financial development of our country, and the second phase - at micro level - for detection of the influence of the bank remittances on per capita basis, i.e. their impact on the welfare of the population.

It could be concluded that the amounts received from immigrants through the system of official fund transfers have importance of BNB’s BoP and support the economic and financial development of the country.

 

• Structures and structural changes of the hidden economy of Bulgaria through the period 2002 - 2008 - author Valentin Goev, Ph.D., Associate Professor at Statistics and Econometrics Department of the University of National and World Economy, Sofia.

The article presents the results of a study the structures of the hidden economy in Bulgaria. Two structures of the hidden economy have been considered - gray and informal. The structure of the hidden economy includes the sectors: industry, agricultural, construction, trade, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications and  sector ‘others” is summary of other activities. Data to be analysed for both types of structures are estimations for exhaustiveness of GDP for nonobserved economy, part of  which is the hidden economy. Those estimations are carried out by the National Statistical Institute. Analyzed data are for the period 2002 - 2008.. Based on this analysis are made meaningful conclusions about the structural changes of the hidden economy in this period.

 

III. In Historical development of the statistical theory and practice are presented some authentic publications of famous Bulgarian and foreign authors who have imposed significant influence on the development of the Bulgarian statistics and uplift of its international reputation:

 

• The representativity method and its application for development of the material for the agricultural farms as oF 31.12.1926 - author O. N. Anderson.

•A graphics (nomographics) for detection of discrepancy limits when using the representativity method - author Gr. Nahimzon.

•My way as statistician (1917 - 2008) - author Prof. Venec Tzonev.

 

IV. In Information, reviews, consultations, the following information is published:

 

• Scientific conference ‘Eencouraging the births - the multicountry practice of government interference in the reproduction of the population: the Bulgarian and the European experience - author Kamelia Lilova, CES of BAS.

This article presents the information concerning the Scientific Conference with international participation, organized in Sofia in March 2009 by the Centre of research of population at BAS and the National Council in cooperation of ethnic and demographic issues at the Council of Ministers of Bulgaria. At this high-profile forum were determined the priorities in the politics of birth and some measures for improvement of the participation of the state into the stimulation of the reproduction and regulation of the demographic processes.

 

 

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