National Statistical institute informs data users that the first volume of Statistics Journal, 2008 is issued. The following articles are included:
• Statistics - Science for Designing, Organization and Conduction of Surveys on Mass Events – authors: prof. V. Tzonev and, D.Sc, Prof. Iv. Seykova
SUMMARY: The science, called statistics is considered a special type of engineering science, i.e. science for designing, organization and conduction of surveys on mass phenomena, observed as a whole (as aggregates). The authors’ concept is formulated based on and within the context of the ontology, epistemology and logic, as well as on the idea for the specific character of the statistical information production.
Considerations are based on the 250 years development of the statistics as a science – from its beginning to the present days. Four periods, within the development of the statistics, are described, based on the dominating opinions concerning the question what kind of science is the statistics and what have been the directions and content of the statistical surveys: 1) the statistics is a science surveying the mass phenomena, considered as a whole; 2) mainly the methodology is developed during the last more than 120 years and the theory of mass phenomena drops behind; 3) it is necessary to develop the ontology, the theory of knowledge and logic process, which are not valid for the individual approach of the scientific survey, but for existence of mass phenomena; 4) no matter its specific, the engineering i.e. the production character of the statistical surveys includes all elements of a given production process – designing, organization, realization and marketing of the information products produced; 5) at present, part of these elements are not fully covered in the scientific surveys and especially in teaching.
The article is opened for discussions.
• Chronology of the Bulgarian Business Cycle – author Rumen Veselinov, Ph.D., Department “Statistics”, University of South Carolina, Columbia, USA
SUMMARY. Monthly composite coinciding economic indicator (CEI) for the Bulgarian business cycle (BBC) based on three monthly time series for 1990-2006 is developed in the paper. The quarterly GDP is interpolated in order to construct monthly GDP data for Bulgaria using the state space model procedure proposed by Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997). The new CEI is closely related to the monthly GDP interpolated series.
The chronology of both the classical business cycle and the growth cycle for Bulgaria, using the Bry-Boschan methodology are determined. The chronology for 1990-2006 is based on the monthly CEI, and for 1924-1992 - on the annual GDP data. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is used to identify the cyclical component of each series for the growth cycle.
• Ideas for Innovations in the Statistics Based on the Analysis of Discrepancies – author Ivanka Seykova, D. Sc., Professor on statistics
SUMMARY: A concept for usage of “wide based innovations” is grounded in the Lisbon strategy.
Mastery and application of special knowledge and skills how to create new ideas more successfully are necessary in order to ensure “interrupted flow of innovations” for effective changes in the field of social practice and scientific knowledge. Here, an approach is presented for stimulation of the new ideas creation. The last is based on investigation of the existing discrepancies. From a philosophical point of view, the discrepancies include: 1) risks for failures and collapses of the activity; 2) real chances for success based on discovery and usage of new opportunities and 3) guaranteed and easily accessible resource for creation of new ideas and better variants for management decisions.
The necessity is grounded for the statisticians to master the special techniques for stimulation of the innovative (creative) thinking and behaviour.
• Methods for Construction of Marriage Tables During and After the Population Censuses – author B. Rusev, Ph.D., Professor at Department “Statistics and Econometrics”, University for National and World Economy–Sofia
SUMMARY: Methods for construction of first marriage tables based on population censuses data and their construction after the censuses are presented.
Starting point is the method for construction of the above mentioned tables based on 2001 census data. Two approaches are developed for assessment of the population at risk – single women survived to a given exact age (x-age). Marriage table covering the period 2000-2001 is constructed on this basis (table 1 and figure 4).
In the case, non-standard is table 3, where longitudinal analysis of the marriage cohort included in table 2 is done. The pointed approach supplements the conclusions based on table 2.
Tables 4 and 5 are constructed based on the second method offered (see figure 7). Covered period is 2004-2005 (the period between 1.03.2001 and the next census). The idea is to “move” the age distribution of single women at 1.03.2001 towards 1.01.2005. For the purpose row of single women included in table 2 is used as well as probabilities for dying pointed in NSI life tables for 2002-2004. The complicated technique for moving is demonstrated by graphs 5 and 6 and the respective model calculations.
• Basic methods and models for creation projects on economically active population (labour force) author Yana Gencheva-Dimova, Ph.D. student in CPS at BAS, senior expert at Regional Statistical Office, Plovdiv
SUMMARY: Economically active population or the current labour force is basic economic category of population. It can be used in the analyses of important social-economic groups like employed, unemployed, working pensioners, etc. Selected method and models are presented in the paper consecutively – from general ones to more detailed and profound, which according to the author are suitable for preparation of projections on economically active population. The models are systemized in four main groups: extrapolation, demo-economic regression, structural matrix and multi-status models. The choice of a given model depends on the necessary information. Dependencies between important social-economic factors and development of the active (migration especially) and the inactive population are surveyed by the demo-economic models. Structural models are composed for active population only, taking into account its survival, migration and balance (growth or reduction) caused by inclusion of persons from other groups of inactive and vice versa. Multi-status models include all population groups, who interact with the active population. Multi-status models take into account not only the final results of the interactions, but the separate opposite flows of each observed group.
The annual subscription price (4 issues, including mailing costs) amounts to EUR 20. Price per issue - EUR 7. Prices include VAT.
Subscriptions at the following address:
National Statistical Institute
Publications Division
2, Panayot Volov St.
1038 Sofia
Bulgaria
e-mail: [email protected]
Purchase by bank transfer:
NSI Bank Account
Bulgarian National Bank
Knyaz Alexander Battenberg Square, Sofia
IBAN BG84 BNBG 9661 3000 1190 01
BIC BNBGBGSD
