Population and demographic projections




Euro-SDMX Metadata Structure (ESMS)

POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS - Population, Average annual population, Natural movement of the population, Population projections
Contact
Contact organisation

National Statistical Institute

Contact organisation unit

Population and Housing Fund Statistics

Contact name

Magdalena Kostova

Contact person function

Director "Demographic and Social Statistics" Directorate

 

Contact mail address

2, P. Volov Str.; 1038 Sofia, Bulgaria

Contact email address

mhkostova@nsi.bg

Contact phone number

+359 2 9857 411

Contact fax number
Metadata update
Metadata last certified06 July 2018
Metadata last posted06 July 2018
Metadata last update06 July 2018
Statistical presentation
Data description

The population and its structures are defined as of 31.12. of the respective year. The population number and structures at the end of each year are calculated based on the previous year data and data on natural and migration increase during the reference year.

In the census years, recalculations of the population are done as of the end of the respective and the previous year. The recalculations are based on the census results and the respective calculations for the natural and migration increase, received from the current demographic statistics for the reference year.

The concept "permanent population" is applied in calculation of the population and its structures. The persons are included, permanently living in the country (having current address) as of 31.12. of the respective year and who have not been absent from the country for more than 1 year period.

Demographic projections (the population perspective projections) are calculations done under settled in advance conditions for the future development of the fertility, mortality and migration. They give an idea for the population development during the projected period. Different scenarios for the population projections are used depending on the expected social-economic development of the country.

Classification system

· Classification of Territorial Units for Statistical Purposes in Bulgaria (NUTS);

· Unified Classification of the Administrative-Territorial and Territorial Units in Bulgaria (UCATTU).

Sector coverage

The data on population number and structures cover persons permanently living at the country territory no matter their citizenship and status. The population territorial distribution (by settlements, municipalities, districts and statistical regions) is done according to the country administrative-territorial division as of 31.12. of the reference year and current address officially stated address of residence.

The last demographic projection elaborated by the NSI concerns the development of population up to 2080 with a starting point - the country population as of 31.12.2016 and takes into account the number of demographic events in 2017. The projection is prepared by single ages for each year within the period. Data is published for five-year periods.

Statistical concepts and definitions

Population as of 31.12.

Persons permanently living (having current address) in the country as of 31.12. of the reference year and who have not been absent for more than 1 year period.

The population number and structures at the end of each year are calculated on the basis of the population data for the preceding year and the data for natural and mechanical movement of the population during the current year.

Average annual population

The average annual number of population is average arithmetical value of the population at the end of previous and the end of reference year.

Natural change

The difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths during the reference year.

Natural increase rate

Calculated per 1 000 population and representing the difference between the number of live births and deaths during the year and the average annual population for the same year.

Migration growth

The difference between immigration into and emigration from the area during the year.

Net international migration is the difference between immigration into and emigration from the country.

Age

The population age is calculated as of 31.12. in completed years based on date of birth, i.e. the age reached at the end of the reference year.

Population under, at and over working age

The age limits used for distribution of the population under, at and over working age defined according to the annually updated retirement age, adopted by the Council of Ministers.

Age dependency ratio

Ratio of the number of persons under 15 years of age and number of persons 65 and more per 100 persons aged 15 to 64 years calculated in percentage.

Old age dependency ratio

Ratio of the number of persons aged 65 and more per 100 persons aged 15-64 years calculated in percentage.

Rate of demographic ageing

Rate of increase of the population over working age (according to the respective age limits for male and female) compared to the previous year calculated in percentage.

Demographic replacement rate

Ratio between the number of population aged 15 to 19 years (persons entering working age) and the number of population aged 60 to 64 years (persons leaving working age) calculated in percentage.

Statistical unit

Persons

Statistical population

Total population

Reference area

Regional breakdown of the population is done according to the country administrative-territorial division as of 31.12. of the reference year - settlements, municipalities, districts and statistical regions.

Time coverage

For population:

· 1880 - 2011  by census years;

· 1946 - 2017  as of 31.12.;

· 2010 - 2017  on the NSI website.

For national projection - 2020 - 2080

For district projections - 2020 - 2080

Base period

Not applicable.

Unit of measure

Number; percentage (%)

Reference period

The calendar year

Institutional mandate
Legal acts and other agreements

· Law on Statistics;

· Regulation (EU) 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the European statistics;

· Regulation (EU) 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the European demographic  statistics;

· Commission implementing regulation (EU) № 205/2014 laying down uniformed conditions for the implementation of Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and the Council on European demographic statistics, as regards breakdowns of data, deadlines and data revisions

· Law on Civil Registration.

Data sharing

Data are transmitted to Eurostat on the basis of  Regulation (EU) 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the European demographic statistics;

 

 

Confidentiality
Confidentiality - policy

· Law on Statistics;

· Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009 (OJ L 87, p. 164), stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society.

Confidentiality - data treatment

Individual data are not published in accordance with article 25 of the Law on Statistics. The publishing of individual data can be performed only in accordance with article 26 of the same law.

Release policy
Release calendar

Information is published annually according to the Release Calendar presenting the results of the statistical surveys carried out by the National Statistical Institute.

Release calendar access

The calendar is available on the NSI website: http://www.nsi.bg/en

 

User access

Data is published on the NSI website, section Population and demographic processes in accordance with the Law on Statistics and the European Statistics Code of Practice respecting the professional independence and aimed at objectivity, transparency and equal treatment of all consumers.

Frequency of dissemination

Annually

Accessibility and clarity
News release

News release "Population and demographic processes"

Publications

· Population and demographic processes;

· Statistical Reference book;

· Statistical Yearbook;

· Booklet Bulgaria.

On-line database

Data on population are available to all users of the NSI website under the heading Population (Demography, Migration and Projections): http://www.nsi.bg/en/node/6701

Information system Infostat: https://infostat.nsi.bg/infostat/pages/module.jsf?x_2=80 (Population) and https://infostat.nsi.bg/infostat/pages/module.jsf?x_2=122 (Population projections)

Micro-data access

Anonymised individual data can be provide for scientific and research purposes, and for individual request according to the Rules for the provision of anonymised individual data for scientific and research purposes.

Other

Information service on request, according to the Rules for the dissemination of statistical products and services in NSI.

Documentation on methodology

· Methodology on population and demographic processes: http://www.nsi.bg/sites/default/files/files/metadata/Pop_6_Metodology_population_en.pdf;

· Methodology on population projections.

Quality documentation

Not available.

Quality management
Quality assurance

Not applicable.

Quality assessment

Not applicable.

Relevance
User needs

Data on population and demographic processes are presented annually to the Eurostat, UN and UNICEF - questionnaires filled in annually.

At national and regional level the main data users are ministries, agencies, national organisations and local authorities.

Data is presented to scientific institutes, universities, NGOs and others based on requests.

User satisfaction

No user' satisfaction surveys are carried out.

Completeness

Population data is available by sex, age (different groupings), residence (different territorial levels), citizenship and country of birth.

Accuracy and reliability
Overall accuracy

Not applicable.

Sampling error

Not applicable.

Non-sampling error

Not applicable.

Timeliness and punctuality
Timeliness

Data are published up to the end of April in the year following the reference year.

Punctuality

Data is released according to the terms.

Coherence and comparability

Comparability - geographical

Data is collected and processed for the different territorial units using one and the same methodology and definitions.

Comparability - over time

Changes of the methodology and definitions for different time periods are published in the survey methodology.

Coherence - cross domain

Not applicable.

Coherence - internal

Not applicable.

Cost and burden

Not applicable.

Data revision
Data revision - policy

Recalculations of the population at the end of reference year and for the previous one are done in the census years.

Data revision - practice

The recalculation of population is based on the census results and the respective calculations of the natural and migration growth for the reference year, received form the current demographic statistics.

Statistical processing
Source data

Source of data on the population number and structures is the Information system "Demography" and the information on demographic events (births, deaths, marriages, divorces, migration) received from the Unified System for Civil registration and Administrative Service of Population.

Frequency of data collection

Monthly

Data collection

Exhaustively for all registered during the year demographic events.

Computer files are received from the Unified System for Civil registration and Administrative Service of Population (administrative source).

Data validation

Data on demographic events is checked and controlled before to be loaded in the IS "Demography".

For successful processing, the initial notification should meet the system rules on validation and control.

The processed results are validated in respect the consistency of a single table and between the tables.

Data compilation

Data is processed by the IS "Demography" according to the rules for validation and control of the demographic events.

Adjustment

Not applicable.

Comment
Metadata Structure Definition in SDMX 2.1: ESMS_MSD+BNSI+2.0+SDMX.2.1.xml
Metadata Structure Definition in SDMX 2.0: ESMS_MSD+BNSI+2.0+SDMX.2.0.xml


ESS Standard for Quality Reports Structure (ESQRS)

POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS - Population, Average annual population, Natural movement of the population, Population projections
Contact
Contact organisation

National Statistical Institute

Contact organisation unit

Population and Housing Fund Statistics

Contact name

Magdalena Kostova

Contact person function

Director "Demographic and Social Statistics" Directorate

 

Contact mail address

2, P. Volov Str.; 1038 Sofia, Bulgaria

Contact email address

mhkostova@nsi.bg

Contact phone number

+359 2 9857 411

Contact fax number
Statistical presentation
Data description

The population and its structures are defined as of 31.12. of the respective year. The population number and structures at the end of each year are calculated based on the previous year data and data on natural and migration increase during the reference year.

In the census years, recalculations of the population are done as of the end of the respective and the previous year. The recalculations are based on the census results and the respective calculations for the natural and migration increase, received from the current demographic statistics for the reference year.

The concept "permanent population" is applied in calculation of the population and its structures. The persons are included, permanently living in the country (having current address) as of 31.12. of the respective year and who have not been absent from the country for more than 1 year period.

Demographic projections (the population perspective projections) are calculations done under settled in advance conditions for the future development of the fertility, mortality and migration. They give an idea for the population development during the projected period. Different scenarios for the population projections are used depending on the expected social-economic development of the country.

Classification system

· Classification of Territorial Units for Statistical Purposes in Bulgaria (NUTS);

· Unified Classification of the Administrative-Territorial and Territorial Units in Bulgaria (UCATTU).

Sector coverage

The data on population number and structures cover persons permanently living at the country territory no matter their citizenship and status. The population territorial distribution (by settlements, municipalities, districts and statistical regions) is done according to the country administrative-territorial division as of 31.12. of the reference year and current address officially stated address of residence.

The last demographic projection elaborated by the NSI concerns the development of population up to 2080 with a starting point - the country population as of 31.12.2016 and takes into account the number of demographic events in 2017. The projection is prepared by single ages for each year within the period. Data is published for five-year periods.

Statistical concepts and definitions

Population as of 31.12.

Persons permanently living (having current address) in the country as of 31.12. of the reference year and who have not been absent for more than 1 year period.

The population number and structures at the end of each year are calculated on the basis of the population data for the preceding year and the data for natural and mechanical movement of the population during the current year.

Average annual population

The average annual number of population is average arithmetical value of the population at the end of previous and the end of reference year.

Natural change

The difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths during the reference year.

Natural increase rate

Calculated per 1 000 population and representing the difference between the number of live births and deaths during the year and the average annual population for the same year.

Migration growth

The difference between immigration into and emigration from the area during the year.

Net international migration is the difference between immigration into and emigration from the country.

Age

The population age is calculated as of 31.12. in completed years based on date of birth, i.e. the age reached at the end of the reference year.

Population under, at and over working age

The age limits used for distribution of the population under, at and over working age defined according to the annually updated retirement age, adopted by the Council of Ministers.

Age dependency ratio

Ratio of the number of persons under 15 years of age and number of persons 65 and more per 100 persons aged 15 to 64 years calculated in percentage.

Old age dependency ratio

Ratio of the number of persons aged 65 and more per 100 persons aged 15-64 years calculated in percentage.

Rate of demographic ageing

Rate of increase of the population over working age (according to the respective age limits for male and female) compared to the previous year calculated in percentage.

Demographic replacement rate

Ratio between the number of population aged 15 to 19 years (persons entering working age) and the number of population aged 60 to 64 years (persons leaving working age) calculated in percentage.

Statistical unit

Persons

Statistical population

Total population

Reference area

Regional breakdown of the population is done according to the country administrative-territorial division as of 31.12. of the reference year - settlements, municipalities, districts and statistical regions.

Time coverage

For population:

· 1880 - 2011  by census years;

· 1946 - 2017  as of 31.12.;

· 2010 - 2017  on the NSI website.

For national projection - 2020 - 2080

For district projections - 2020 - 2080

Base period

Not applicable.

Statistical processing
Source data

Source of data on the population number and structures is the Information system "Demography" and the information on demographic events (births, deaths, marriages, divorces, migration) received from the Unified System for Civil registration and Administrative Service of Population.

Frequency of data collection

Monthly

Data collection

Exhaustively for all registered during the year demographic events.

Computer files are received from the Unified System for Civil registration and Administrative Service of Population (administrative source).

Data validation

Data on demographic events is checked and controlled before to be loaded in the IS "Demography".

For successful processing, the initial notification should meet the system rules on validation and control.

The processed results are validated in respect the consistency of a single table and between the tables.

Data compilation

Data is processed by the IS "Demography" according to the rules for validation and control of the demographic events.

Adjustment

Not applicable.

Quality management
Quality assurance

Not applicable.

Quality assessment

Not applicable.

Relevance
User needs

Data on population and demographic processes are presented annually to the Eurostat, UN and UNICEF - questionnaires filled in annually.

At national and regional level the main data users are ministries, agencies, national organisations and local authorities.

Data is presented to scientific institutes, universities, NGOs and others based on requests.

User satisfaction

No user' satisfaction surveys are carried out.

Completeness

Population data is available by sex, age (different groupings), residence (different territorial levels), citizenship and country of birth.

Data completeness - rate

Not applicable

Accuracy and reliability
Overall accuracy

Not applicable.

Sampling error

Not applicable.

Sampling errors - indicators

Not applicable.

Non-sampling error

Not applicable.

Coverage error

Not applicable.

Over-coverage - rate

Not applicable

Common units - proportion

Not applicable

Measurement error

Not applicable

Non response error

Not applicable

Unit non-response - rate

Not applicable

Item non-response - rate

Not applicable

Processing error

Not applicable

Imputation - rate

Not applicable

Model assumption error

Not applicable

Seasonal adjustment

Not applicable

Data revision - policy

Recalculations of the population at the end of reference year and for the previous one are done in the census years.

Data revision - practice

The recalculation of population is based on the census results and the respective calculations of the natural and migration growth for the reference year, received form the current demographic statistics.

Data revision - average size

Not applicable

Timeliness and punctuality
Timeliness

Data are published up to the end of April in the year following the reference year.

Time lag - first results

4 months after the reference date

Time lag - final results

4 months after the reference date

Punctuality

Data is released according to the terms.

Punctuality - delivery and publication

Not applicable

Coherence and comparability

Comparability - geographical

Data is collected and processed for the different territorial units using one and the same methodology and definitions.

Asymmetry for mirror flows statistics - coefficient

Not applicable

Comparability - over time

Changes of the methodology and definitions for different time periods are published in the survey methodology.

Length of comparable time series

since 2000

Coherence - cross domain

Not applicable.

Coherence - sub annual and annual statistics

Not applicable

Coherence - National Accounts

Not applicable

Coherence - internal

Not applicable.

Accessibility and clarity
News release

News release "Population and demographic processes"

Publications

· Population and demographic processes;

· Statistical Reference book;

· Statistical Yearbook;

· Booklet Bulgaria.

On-line database

Data on population are available to all users of the NSI website under the heading Population (Demography, Migration and Projections): http://www.nsi.bg/en/node/6701

Information system Infostat: https://infostat.nsi.bg/infostat/pages/module.jsf?x_2=80 (Population) and https://infostat.nsi.bg/infostat/pages/module.jsf?x_2=122 (Population projections)

Data tables - consultations

Not applicable

Micro-data access

Anonymised individual data can be provide for scientific and research purposes, and for individual request according to the Rules for the provision of anonymised individual data for scientific and research purposes.

Other

Information service on request, according to the Rules for the dissemination of statistical products and services in NSI.

Metadata - consultations

Not applicable

Documentation on methodology

· Methodology on population and demographic processes: http://www.nsi.bg/sites/default/files/files/metadata/Pop_6_Metodology_population_en.pdf;

· Methodology on population projections.

Metadata completeness – rate

100%

Quality documentation

Not available.

Cost and burden

Not applicable.

Confidentiality
Confidentiality - policy

· Law on Statistics;

· Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009 (OJ L 87, p. 164), stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society.

Confidentiality – data treatment

Individual data are not published in accordance with article 25 of the Law on Statistics. The publishing of individual data can be performed only in accordance with article 26 of the same law.

Comment
Metadata Structure Definition in SDMX 2.1: ESQRS_MSD+BNSI+2.0+SDMX.2.1.xml
Metadata Structure Definition in SDMX 2.0: ESQRS_MSD+BNSI+2.0+SDMX.2.0.xml
  • Friday, 11 May 2018 - 11:00

    Life expectancy at birth of the Bulgarian population calculated for the period 2015 - 2017 is 74.8 years.

    Life expectancy at birth for male population is 71.3 years, while for female it is 7.1 years higher - 78.4 years.

  • Thursday, 12 April 2018 - 11:00

    As of 31 December 2017 the population of Bulgaria is 7 050 034 persons, representing 1.4% of the EU population. Compared to 2016, the population decreases by 51 825 persons.

    There are 63 955 live born children in 2017. The number of live births decreases by 1 029 compared to the previous year.

    The number of deaths in 2017 is 109 791 and the crude mortality rate - 15.5‰. Compared to the previous year the number of deaths increases by 2 211.

  • Monday, 8 January 2018 - 11:00

    The most preferred names for new-born boys in 2017 are Aleksandar, Georgi and Martin, and for new-born girls - Viktoria, Maria and Nikol.

    The largest number of Bulgarians celebrate a name day on Tsvetnitsa (Palm Day), Ivanovden (The day of St. Ioan) and Arhangelovden (Michaelmas day).

    The leading names by regions for men are Georgi, Ivan and Dimitar, and for women - Maria, Ivanka and Elena.

  • Friday, 12 May 2017 - 11:00

    Life expectancy at birth of the Bulgarian population calculated for the period 2014 - 2016 is 74.7 years.

    Life expectancy at birth for male population is 71.2 years, while for female it is 7.0 years higher - 78.2 years.

  • Wednesday, 12 April 2017 - 11:00

    As of 31 December 2016 the population of Bulgaria is 7 101 859 persons or 1.4% of the EU population. Compared to 2015, the population of the country decreases by 51 925 persons.

    There are 64 984 live born children in 2016. The number of live births decreases by 966 children compared to the previous year.

    The number of dead persons is 107 580 and the crude mortality rate - 15.1‰. Compared to the previous year the number of dead people decreases by 2 537.

  • Thursday, 5 January 2017 - 11:00

    Aleksandar and Viktoria are the most preferred names for new-born babies in Bulgaria in 2016.

  • Friday, 13 May 2016 - 11:00

    Life expectancy at birth of the Bulgarian population calculated for the period 2013 - 2015 is 74.5 years

    Life expectancy at birth for male population is 71.1 years, while for female it is 6.9 years higher - 78.0 years.

  • Friday, 15 April 2016 - 11:00

    As of 31 December 2015 the population of Bulgaria is 7 153 784 persons, representing 1.4% of the EU population. Compared to 2014, the population decreases by 48 414 persons.

    There are 65 950 live born children in 2015. The number of live births decreases by 1 635 compared to the previous year.

    The number of deaths in 2015 is 110 117 and the crude mortality rate - 15.3‰. Compared to the previous year the number of deaths increases by 1 165.

  • Friday, 15 May 2015 - 11:00

    Life expectancy at birth of the Bulgarian population calculated for the period 2012 - 2014 is 74.7 years. Compared to the previous period (2011 - 2013) it increased by 0.2 years.

    Life expectancy at birth for male population is 71.2 years, while for female it is 7.1 years higher - 78.3 years.

  • Friday, 17 April 2015 - 11:00

    As of 31 December 2014 the population of Bulgaria is 7 202 198 persons or 1.4% of the EU population. Compared to 2013, the population of the country decreases by 43 479 persons.

    There are 67 585 live born children in 2014. The number of live births increases by 1 007 children compared to the previous year.

    The number of dead persons is 108 952 and the crude mortality rate - 15.1‰. Compared to the previous year the number of dead people increases by 4 607.

Pages

  • Statistical Reference Book 2018
    The National Statistical Institute presents to users of statistical information the annual publication - Statistical Reference Book 2018 in English.

    The Statistical Reference Book presents topical information on the demographic processes as well as the economic, social and cultural development of the Republic of Bulgaria for the 2014 - 2017 period.

  • Statistical Yearbook 2017 in infographics
    The National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria offers a different view of the statistical information included in the 85th edition of the Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Bulgaria.

    The publication is intended for a wider audience as statistical data are presented in a plain and easy understandable way.

    The current state and changes in the socio-economic and cultural life in the country are presented not in the traditional way in tables and text, but through infographics - images, graphics and other visualization tools.

  • Statistical Reference Book 2018 (Bulgarian version)
    The National Statistical Institute presents to users of statistical information the annual publication - Statistical Reference Book 2018 in Bulgarian.

    The Statistical Reference Book presents topical information on the demographic processes as well as the economic, social and cultural development of the Republic of Bulgaria for the 2014 - 2017 period.

  • Statistical Yearbook 2017
    The National Statistical Institute (NSI) has the pleasure to present to the attention of national and foreign users of statistical information the 84th edition of the ‘Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Bulgaria’ in printed and electronic format.

    It provides current statistical information about the demographic, economic and social development of the country for 2012 - 2016 in different territorial and classification aggregations and breakdowns.

  • Bulgaria 2018
    The National Statistical Institute presents the bilingual (Bulgarian/English) brochure Bulgaria 2018 to users of statistical information. The brochure is addressed to a wide range of users (international institutions, business, students, experts etc.) and changes the traditional presentation of statistical information by offering an innovative structure with a parallel translation in English. The publication contains topical statistical information about the demographic, social and economic development of the country over the 2013 - 2017 period.
  • Regions, districts and municipalities in the Republic of Bulgaria 2016
    The National Statistical Institute offers to the users who are interesting in regional statistics the specialized electronic publication ‘Regions, districts and municipalities in the Republic of Bulgaria 2016’.
  • Health Services 2017
    The National Statistical Institute informs users of statistical information in the field of social statistics that the annual publication Health Services 2017 (in Bulgarian only) is already available.

    The publication Health Services is a joint edition of the National Statistical Institute and the National Centre for Public Health and Analyses at the Ministry of Health.

    The data sources are the statistical surveys carried out by the both institutions.

    In the publication data are systematized as follows:

  • Population and Demographic Processes 2016
    The NSI annual electronic publication Population and Demographic Processes 2016 is available for users of statistical information.

    The issue is bilingual (Bulgarian/English) and contains detailed statistical information about the demographic state in the Republic of Bulgaria during the year of 2016. Data for the number and the structure of the population and for its natural movement and internal migration are published in the issue.

  • Statistical Reference Book 2017
    The National Statistical Institute presents to users of statistical information the annual publication - Statistical Reference Book 2017 in English.

    The Statistical Reference Book presents topical information on the demographic processes as well as the economic, social and cultural development of the Republic of Bulgaria for the 2013 - 2016 period.

  • Statistical Reference Book 2017 (Bulgarian version)
    The National Statistical Institute presents to users of statistical information the annual publication - Statistical Reference Book 2017 in Bulgarian.

    The Statistical Reference Book presents topical information on the demographic processes as well as the economic, social and cultural development of the Republic of Bulgaria for the 2013 - 2016 period.

Pages