‘Statistics’ Magazine, issue 3/2017

The National Statistical Institute would like to inform users of statistical information that No. 3/2017 ‘Statistics’ Magazine is published on the NSI’s website. The issue is in Bulgarian language with summaries in Bulgarian, English and Russian and includes sections as follows:
 Theory and methodology of statistical surveys
 Statistical surveys and analysis
 Information, reviews, consultations
The section Theory and Methodology of statistical surveys incudes the article:
 Index factory analysis of production from single and various aggregates of goods according to changes in their prices and natural quantities with discrete odd function of the mathematical signum (methodology for analysis) - author Prof. Emil Hristov

Proposed is a new methodology for the traditional index factor analysis of the change of production in monetary terms from any homogeneous and heterogeneous sets of goods. The production change index of the whole aggregation is analysed according to factor changes in prices and natural quantities of individual goods. First, an additive factor analysis of the production variation of each individual commodity is made using the author's methodology for the effects of unidirectional and multidirectional factor changes with the discreet odd function of the mathematical signum. Each of the effects obtained (two net and one joint) is summed for all goods. With the three aggregate effects, three net factor indices are compiled, which are then converted into definitive factor indices for the factor effects of all changes for all commodities. With the new indexing method, the unambiguous (only true and accurate) solutions are being found in comparison to the conditional and inaccurate solutions with the multiple factor indices of the prices with constant composition of Laspeyres and Paashe.

The section Theory and Methodology of statistical studies incudes the articles:

 Some structural changes in the natal (fertile) contingent in Bulgaria and their impact on birth rate - author  Prof. Dr. Dimitar Arkadiev

The article discusses the decrease in the number of live births in Bulgaria during the last 15-20 years. This reflects directly on the total number of the population in the country. The trends in the change in the number of live births and women from the maternity contingent are studied.

The model of spline-functions (live births) and second order parables (women) are used to describe the lasting trend. It characterizes the structure and structural changes in the age distribution of women from the birth contingent and the born from them children. The dimensions of some fertility rates are analysed. The changes of age-related birth rates are discussed. An index factor analysis of the number of live children is made. Changes in the total fertility rate are monitored. The pattern of the second row parabola is used. Finally, the possibilities for increasing the number of live children in Bulgaria are discussed.

The main results of the analysis are as follows: Fertility increases, but the number of women in the maternity contingent decreases steadily. Births occur at an older age of the mother. Some opportunities for increasing the number of live births are: immigration of women in childbearing age, state policy to stimulate educated fertility, reduction of abortions, invitro- procedures, using other countries' experience in demographic policy, and others.

 Bulgarian agriculture and its European dimensions - author Girgina Nikolova, National Statistical Institute - Sofia

This article reviews the main trends in the development of agriculture in Bulgaria for the last fifteen years. For this purpose, changes in production structures, the workforce, the value of agricultural production, added value created and income from agricultural activities, including as a result of the implementation of the principles and mechanisms of the EU Common Agricultural Policy, are reviewed. Statistical data from farm structure surveys, crop and livestock statistics, farm typology, agricultural accounts for agriculture, agricultural land market in the country are used to analyse the trends.

 Agile management as an element of the modernization of the territorial structures of the National Statistical Institute - author Svetla Ivanova, National Statistical Institute - Sofia

Agile Management of the Statistical Organization is one of the topical issues under discussion by the Commission for modernization the organizational framework and assessment to the High Level Group for modernization of official statistics at the United Nations. From the position of the Head of Territorial statistical division in the article, I presented my point of view on the possibility of such a type of management in the territorial structure of the NSI.

The article justifies the need of a flexible organizational culture. The main features of the Agile management and Scrum approach and how their application in the NSI's territorial structure would appear, while complying with the European Statistical Practice Code and the implementation of the ISO 9001 clauses, are presented. The Agile management philosophy is consistent with the phases and sub-actions of the common statistical production process model in the NSI.

Attention is also paid to risk management under the conditions of Agile Management, with presented detailed methods of risk monitoring and analysis of the causes of its occurrence. The role of internal audit beyond the context of the Public internal audit Act and its necessity in the territorial structures of such governance is also reviewed.

As the most suitable way of introducing the philosophy of Agile management in the structure of the NSI's territorial structures into the statistical production process, a hybrid model of management is shortly presented, where only in separate phases of the Common Statistical Production Process in the NSI is applied the Scrum Approach.

 Proposal for a regulation of the European parliament and of the European council for establishing a common framework for European statistical data for persons and households - author  Dr. Vasil Bozev, University of National and World Economy - Sofia

The Europe 2020 strategy uses indicators to monitor leading goals such as improving education levels, reducing poverty, promoting employment and social inclusion. Therefore, in the 2013-2017 framework period, one of the pillars of the statistical information system on which emphasis is placed is the social pillar. In this context, the European Parliament and the Council are proposing a Regulation to modernize collection and improve the comparability of statistical information in the social system. This cannot be achieved without a clear European framework defining common statistical concepts, reporting formats and quality requirements. By acting separately, it would be difficult for Member States to achieve this comparability with each other. However, this can be done at the level of the European Union based on a legal act ensuring the coherence and comparability of statistical information in the areas of statistics covered by the proposed act.

The section Information, reviews, consultations presents information about:

 Participation in working meeting ‘providing basic information for purchasing power parity’ (Lisbon, Portugal, 20-21 march 2017) - author Kalinka Petrova,  National Statistical Institute - Sofia

The purpose of the workshop was a joint discussion of some methodological issues, assessment the work done and planning the upcoming tasks in the field of the following observations of consumer goods and services representatives, on which 37 European countries are working according to an established international timetable:

1. Survey E16-1 ‘Everything for the Home and Garden’ - a summary report on the completed monitoring of the stages of work, results, main issues and conclusions at the level of the 37 participating countries

2. Survey E16-2 ‘Transport, restaurants and hotels’ - the results of the current monitoring received after the completion of the first phase (Validation Round 0 - Clearing errors and VR1) validation of the primary price information provided by the participating countries were presented and discussed; Presenting the results of the hotel questionnaire

3. Survey E17-1 ‘Services’ - a toolkit for carrying out the upcoming monitoring as well as a coordinated version of the common list of service representatives, specific instructions for collection and entry into the Eurostat PPP database were presented, some methodological questions were discussed

4. Survey E17-2 ‘Furniture and Health’ - Analysis of the summary results of the preliminary study conducted by each of the countries on the availability of goods / services, brands and models presentability in the market. Stages and timing of the survey

5. Survey E18-1 ‘Food, beverages and tobacco’ - an overview of the upcoming Consumer monitoring - structure, classifications, recommendations and implementation stages was made for the first half of 2018.

The article also presents the express data from consumer prices of goods and services price surveys for 2016, as well as brief methodological notes and general concepts in the area of purchasing power parities.